6th November 2024.
This is the provisional report IDER24-3. The final version of this report is scheduled to be published in Guisan(2025), Economic Development 130, available at Ideas.Repec and at the Euro.American Association of Economic Development Studies Website.
The report includes some contents from the article by Guisan(2024) in RSES 24-2.
This report compares the evolution of Ukraine with several neihbouring countries: Russian Federation and 3 Caucasian countries (Armenia, Azerbiajan and Georgia).
Our aim is to point to the great importance of avoid war and get a peaceful and sustainable solution to the conflicts in Ukraine and all the countries of the study.
Conflicts have not contributed to foster development in Ukraine. For the period 1990-2022 there was a diminution by 50% of its Gross Domestic Product and there were high rates of emigration
1) Production per capita: Graph 1 show the evolution of real Gross Domestic Product per capita in the 5 countries of this report. There was a general diminution, for the period 1990-1992. In the cases of Ukraine and Russia there was a decrease until 1998.
In Ukraine there was a moderate increase for 1998-2008 and stagnation with some decrease for 2008-2022.
In Russia ther4e was a high increase for 1998-2008 and a moderate increase for 2008-2022.
Armenia and Georgia experienced a moderate increase for the period 1993-2022 but in 2008-2009 they experienced a decrease.
Azerbaijan a moderate increase for 1994-2004, a high increase for 2004-2008 and stagnation for 2008-2022.
2) Population: For the period 1990-2022 Armenia diminished Population fron 3.6 million people to 2.8. Azerbaijan experienced an increase and evolved from 7.2 mllion people in 1990 to 10.1 in year 2022. Georgia had 4.8 million population in 1990 and 3.7 in year 2022. Ukraine experienced an strong diminution of Population from 51.9 million in 1990 to 45.1 in 2015 and 38.0 in 2022. Russia evolved from 148 million people in 1990 to 144.2 million in 2022.
Quality of Life: Table 1 shows several indicators of economic development and quality of life in the 5 countries of this report in comparison with the average of 34 European countires and with the World averae around year 2019.
PH19: The 1st column of table 1 shows values of real value of Tross Domestic Product per capita in year 2019, expressed in Dollars at 2017 prices and power parities. Russia had a value higher than the World average but below than the group of 34 European countries. Ukraine and Armenia were slightly below the World average, and Azerbiajan and Georgia slightly over the World average.
Tyr19; is an indicator of human capital, given by the average years os schooling attended by the adult populatio (25+ age). The 5 countries of this report has a level over the World average.
The indicators X1, X2, X4, X5 and X6, are in decimal scasle, with 0 minimum and 10 maximum.
X1: Life satisfaction: the 5 countires have values below the World average, and lower than European average.
X2: Voice of citizens, is an indicator of quality of Government. Georgia and Russia show values higher than 5, while Armenia, Azerbiajan and Ukraine have values below 5.
X4: Political stability. The lowest values correspond to Russia and Ukraine, but the 5 countries have values below 5.
X5= Peace. Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Russia had values below 4, while Georgia had a value of 4 and Armenia of 4.2.
X6= Economic Freedom. Is an indicator important for economic development. The lowest values in table 1 correspond to Ukraine and Russia, below 6, while Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia reached a value higher than 6.
X8= homicides rates is an indicator of quality of social environmet in a country. It is the number of intentional homocide rates per 100 thousand people. Armenia, Azerbiajan and Georgia are below te World average, while Ukraine had a value of 6.3 close to the World average and Russia a value of 10.8.
Guisan, M.C. (2024). Industry, Development and Employment by Sector in Russia, Ukraine and 3 Caucasian Countries, 1990-2022, Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Vol. 24-2.Abstract and pdf
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