46. CO2 Total Emissions in the World 1970-2015: Europe, United States, China, India and other ones

Source: Guisan and Exposito(2020). Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol.20-2 

The article shows that 87% of increase in Total World CO2 Emissions, for the period 1970-2015, were due to Population Growth while the World average of CO2 Emissions per capita explains only 13% of the total increase. Besides it is important to have into account the effects of Wild Fires, because excluding the effect of those fires, the average per capita diminished from 4.23 to 4.0 Tm per inhabitant.

Accordingly to Guisan, Aguayo and Exposito (2001), Guisan and Neira(2006) and other studies, it is important to foster international cooperation for increase financial help to education in low income countries, because it is the best way to get sustainable development with moderation of high rates of population growth and improvement of economic development, health assistance and poverty eradication.

The main industrialized countries of the European Union have diminished, not only in per capita terms, but also CO2 Total Emissions, given is moderate rate of population growth. Total Emissions of CO2 have diminished in 475 million Tms in a group fo 6 industrialized European Countries (France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, United Kingdom and Spain), for the period 1970-2015.

More information at Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 20-1.

Industrial developmen and CO2 emissions in 6 european countries, 1960-2016: france, germany, italy, spain, switzerland and uk, Guisan, M.C. Abstract 

CO2 Total Emissions in the World, 1970-2015: Relationship with Economic Development and Population Growth; Guisan, M.C., Exposito, P.  Abstract

Direct and Indirect Effects of Human Capital on World Development, 1960-2004, by Guisan, M.C. and Neira, I.     Abstract    

Economic growth and cycles: Cross-country models of Education, Industry and Fertility and International Comparisons by Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E. and Exposito, P.  Abstract y article


45. Women´s Quality of Labour, Social Visibility and Quality of Life. Euro-American Report year 2020

Here we present a short version of section 4 of the article by Guisan and Aguayo(2020)

4. Quality of Labour, female social visibility and quality of life.

4.1. Quality of labour and its impact on quality of life

     Women workers lifes are sometimes more stressed than lifes of men workers, due to the problems to conceal family life and labour hours. The consequence is that women workers usually have fewer hours of leisury activities per week. In spite of that, the majority of women are happy to find a job, with quality of labour, not only because paid work provides some degree of income and independence, but also because it allows to develop social and personal values and, in many cases, also vocational jobs.

      Quality of labour is an important part of quality of life. It is interesting to know the evolution for the period 2007-2019. Besides the diminution of average wage for the period 2009-2019 some indicators show that other aspects of quality of labor (stability, opportunities, good environment, flexibility of hours, etc.) seem to have diminished. There has been an increase of presentialism and a diminution of opportunities for tele work in many public and private employments. In year 2020 with the pandemia, there has been an important increase of tele work, which diminishes the travel time to work, increases flexibility and helps to conceal family and labor lifes.

   The problems of conciliation of family life and working life is common in many countries, particularly for women with little children. Availability of public services for children care, family help (from husband, parents or other relatives) or the affordability to pay for private services are of great help but not always are easy to find for many women.

    Indicators in EU28: Perez-Ortiz et al (2020b) present an interesting graph for Female Global Index (horizontal axis) and Male Global Index (vertical axis) and draw the bisector in the first quadrant in 23 European Union countries. We highlight the following results od the Global Index of quality of labour by gender:

 1) At the bottom, with Index below 50 for Female and below 55 for Male Employment: Greece, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, Slovakia, Spain and Italy. 

2) A second group with Index highet than 50 and below 60 for women and below 65 for men: Czech R, Portugal, Germany, France, Ireland, UK, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Belgium. 

3) A third group, with the highest values of the Global Index of quality of labour includes 5 countries with both Female and Male Indexes between 60 and 70: Belgium, Austria, Finland, Denmark and Sweden. 4) The coordinates of most of countries are over the bisector of the first quadrant, as to say the quality of labor is usually higher for men than for women.

4.2 Social visibility of notable women

As seen in Guisan, Aguayo and Exposito (2011), and other studies, there are several interesting articles on the Female difficulties to reach opportunities of promotion and visibility particularly in several environments of traditional Male power. Here we can add information about several problems and some interesting initiatives.

 1) Newspapers, radios and televisions.

 In year 2008 only 6% of women in interviews to professional experts and 10% to political members. Only 21% of opinion journalists, accordingly to the II report ColumnistAs, by Plann. In the ColumnistA study, prepared by the consulting firm Planner Media with the support of the Federation of Associations of Journalists of Spain (FAPE), where it analyzes more than 3,000 pieces of opinion with about 1,500 different columnists, from 26 media outlets, it shows that Only 21% of the opinion columns published by the Spanish media are signed by women and, in the case of opinion columns dedicated to scientific issues, the percentage signed by women drops to 7%.

A study financed by the Women´s Departament of the Autonomuys Community of Madrid, Mateos de Cobo et al (2007) published an analysis of digital press in Spain regarding gender stereotips.

For the last decades, a greater number of women journalists interested on Female visibility, as well as an increasing number of men, has contributed to changes in the contents of newspapers and other means of communication, with more interviews or news on outstanding women in fields of science, literature, economy, politics, and other ones. But already there is the feeling of "being invisible" for many notable women.

2) Associations that support Women in Science, Tecnology, and Executive positions.

The visibility of women in any area of ​​society and particularly in those of research and technology is an aspect of great importance to refute the false argument that "there are no women" or "there are no brilliant women" in the different fields of knowledge (Lopez et al, 2020). .

3) Encyclopedias and texbooks.

     The presence of women in Encyclopedias and Bibliographic Dictionaries is usually very low, with percentages of 6% or below in many fields, where they have had a remarkable higher activity. Although there are a few publications that collect biographies of some relevant women they usually are not available in internet at a low cost or free.

     The scarce inclusion of relevant women in Wikipedia is analyzed in the interesting academic article by Li(2020) and in outstanding articles in newspapers and blogs.

      Noan Cohen(2011) have published an interesting article in the New York Times (NYT) about the gender gap in contributors lists of Wikipedia:

Define Gender Gap? Look Up Wikipedia’s Contributor List. "According to the OpEd Project, an organization based in New York that monitors the gender breakdown of contributors to “public thought-leadership forums,” a participation rate of roughly 85-to-15 percent, men to women, is common — whether members of Congress, or writers on The New York Times and Washington Post Op-Ed pages. It would seem to be an irony that Wikipedia, where the amateur contributor is celebrated, is experiencing the same problem as forums that require expertise."

Sue Gardner(2011).She was the executive director of the Wikimedia Foundation from December 2007 until May 2014, and has written the interesting article at her Blog related with the publication by Norma Cohen:

Nine Reasons Women Don’t Edit Wikipedia (in their own words). We list the 9 reasons in the Annex, and we highlight reason 4 and 9 as important not only for explain the gender gap in contributions to the Encyclopedia but also the gender gap in the biographical contents of notable women. Reason 4) is "Some women don’t edit Wikipedia because they are conflict-averse and don’t like Wikipedia’s sometimes-fighty culture". Reason 9) is "Some women don’t edit Wikipedia because social relationships and a welcoming tone are important to them, and Wikipedia offers fewer opportunities for that than other sites".

      Shlomit Lir (2020), also points to the unfriendly environment that many women find when they wish to include, in Wikipedia, contents related with women, in the article:

Strangers in a seemingly open-to-all website: the gender bias in Wikipedia Equality, Diversity and Inclusion: "Findings – The findings show that having the will to edit and the knowledge of how to edit are necessary but insufficient conditions for women to participate in Wikipedia. The finding reveals two categories: pre-editing barriers of negative reputation, lack of recognition, anonymity and fear of being erased; and post-editing barriers of experiences of rejection, alienation, lack of time and profit and ownership of knowledge. The research suggests a “Vicious Circle” model, displaying how the five layers of negative reputation, anonymity, fear, alienation and rejection – enhance each other, in a manner that deters women from contributing to the website"

     Although Wikipedia has very good contributors, male and female, in many topics, the question is that the rules for contributors are not all good, and they should be improved in order to avoid lack of protection for women, or other contributors, when they find hostility barriers to publish qualified and interesting contents.

     In biographic Encyclopedias and textbooks, the presence of women is usually very scarce and clearly below their professional, artistic or scientific activity. Accordingly.

     An study by López-Navajas(2014) from the University of Valencia, presents data of female protagonism by subject of study in Secondary Education textbooks in Spain and show that only 7.5% of the referents in those text book are women.

3) Blogs and twitter: initiatives for women visibility.

An interesting initiative from Lydia Gil is her Blog of social media investigation : https://socialmediaeninvestigacion.com/mujeresdivulgadoras-edicion3

It is an interesting initiative for visibiligy of women communicators in Sciences (natural Sciences, Social sciencias and other fields). She also contributes to the women visibility on radio program "Ones of science". In the Annex we will include other Blogs.

It is worth highlighting initiatives such as the Women with Science blog, from the Chair of Scientific Culture of the University of the Basque Country, which tries to give greater visibility to women who contributed and contribute to progress in different scientific and technological fields, linked to STEM disciplines (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics).

In the field of social sciences, the Women in Economics network formed in 2019 from the twitter account @mujereseneco addresses the objective of promoting presence in the public debate (conferences, talks, discussion tables, courses, media or discussion forums) of experts from different professional areas of the economic world. With initiatives in social networks such as #unaeconomistapordia with which, a relevant woman in the area of ​​Economics is presented with a brief description of her area of ​​specialization or some of her most relevant works.

In May 2018 @siconmujeres was born as an initiative promoted by male economists to end the discussion round tables where male representatives are often exclusive. In the same line of avoiding expert panels with none women, or little female presence, the Office of the European Parliament in Spain launched the initiative # DondeEstánEllas, which has been signed by several entities.

4) Leadership in Universities, Scientific Academics and Prizes:

 In the study of EUA(2017) on women in leadership positions in European universities. The results show that in 47 countries with EUA members, only 12% of all rectors are female. The maximum is a third of Rectors in Sweden, Norway and Finland, and the minimum below 11% Spain, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Czec Republic, Turkey and Italy.

Women economists in Prizes: the presence of women is below the percentage of their contributions to Economics. Not only the Nobel Prize organization has shown a Male preference, but also in national prizes, as in the case of Spain, as follows:

  Prize of General Council of Economists (Consejo General de Economistas, CGE, in Spanish): In 20 Prizes for years 2001-2018 only 1 was for a female economicst (5%).

  Prize Queen Juan Carlos: In 20 years, 1986-2006, all Prizes for men (0% women)

   Prize Rey Jaime: In 20 years 1997-2016 all Prizes for men (0% for women)

Acccordingly to Ideas-Repec, an important international net of Economics research, theres is a percentage around 25% of Female economists (more than 14000 women out of more than 55000 total economists). Among the top 100 Spanish members of this academid net, there are 21 women economists. A list of names may be seen in Guisan(2018). Women economists at Spanish Universities currently they represent around 40% of intermediate teachers and researchers and 20% of Full Professors. Given this women activity in Economics research it seems that they should appear at least in 20% of Economic Prizes.

4) Businesswoman and executives. There is an increase of initiatives, from Associations, to increase female visibility in the business and professional firms, in engineering, architecture, art and other fields.

5) Women in political positions.

    In year 2007, Spanish socialist government approved a Law named "Organic Law of effective equality of women and men" ruling a minimun of 40% of each gender in electoral lists. Thanks to this law the percentage of Women in National and Regional Assemblies varies in Spain usually between 40 and 50, which is higher than in Italy (between 0 and 29), close to France (44 and 51), higher than in Germany (between 24 and 40) and the United Kingdom (28 and 42), as seen in EAGLE(2019).  In local political representations in Spain, the newspaper El Mundo indicates 30% majors of cities and villages 35% local councillors.

       The question in Spanish politics is not only the percentage of women in national or regional Parliaments, but a low level of internal democracy in many political parties, and excess of Male power concentration in decision making at the top of the parties. The usual voting discipline in Parliaments, following the orders of the political leader, without internal democracy in the party, indicates a low level of democracy and gives to the majority of representatives (male of female) scarce power in decision making of their votes. Women at the top of political parties are very often chosen because they are supporters of the male leaders,

4.3. Subjetive indexes of life satisfaction

     When asked to rate their general satisfaction with life on a scale from 0 to 10, people on average across the OECD gave it a 6.5. Life satisfaction is not evenly shared across the OECD however. Some countries – Greece, Hungary, Portugal and Turkey – have a relatively low level of overall life satisfaction, with average scores of 5.5 or less. At the other end of the scale, scores reach 7.5 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland

     Quality of life it is very much related with employment, real wage, real production per capita, quality of labor conditions but also with female participation in economic and social life, quality of Government and other variables. Generally, the educational level of population has a positive impact on the quality of many of these factors.

       Eurostat (2019) points: "When looking at low, medium and high shares of overall life satisfaction, the differences between men and women remain low. 15.3 % of male respondents stated that they have a low level of life satisfaction, in comparison to 17.0 % of females. On the other hand, 25.6 % of males and 25.2 % of females had a high rating of life satisfaction in 2018".

     OWID(2020) presents a graph, not by gender, of life satisfaction in several countries with data from Eurobarometer(2017).

 The top positions of this group of 5 European coutnries correspond to  the United Kingdom and Germany, while France is an intermediate position between both countries and the lower values are those of Italy and Spain.

More information, in the article 

Guisan, M.C., Aguayo, E. (2020). Employment and Quality of Life of Women in Spain: Evolution 1970-2020 and International Comparisons, Applied Econometrics and International Development Vol. 20-2. Abstract

Free downloadable 


44. List of All Entries of this Blog


Entries since year 2021:

Updates of  old Entries in year 2021:
Entry 42, of year 2020, has been updated on 8th May of 2021 with the evolution of average weekly deaths by Covid19 in 8 OECD countries (United States, Mexico, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, France, Spain and Switzerland)  for year 2021 until the first week of May.

Entries 41 to 44, year 2020

Entries 31 to 40, years 2018 to 2020. To access to each Entry, click on the corresponding row at this table. To access to all the Entries of this group, clik on "Entries 31 to 40".

Entries 26 ro 30, years 2017 and 2018

Entries 22 to 25. Years 2013 to 2016.

Entries 16 to 21. Years 2011 and 2012

21. Economist Maria-Carmen Guisan in New York Times. Room for Debate: Austerity Policies are not working in Europe, 12th November of 2012.

20. Industrial Production and economic crisis in the European Union, year 2012

19. Economic Development, Industry and Production by Sector in American Countries, 1980-2010

18. Impact of Trade Deficit on crisis and drop of Industrial production in the USA and 5 European major countries: France, Germany Italy, Spain and UK

17 Crisis, Development, Voice of Good Economists in Greece, Portugal and Spain, and comparison with other OECD countries. Euro-American Association Development Report 2011.

16. Euro-American Association of Economic Development: Comments on poverty, world development and the book by P. Collier "The poverty bottom billion"

Entries 5 to 15. Years 2009 and 2020

15. Employment in Social Services in OECD countries: Europe, United States and Japan. Euro-American Association Report 2010.

14. European Universities: Reactions to abuses and misuses of bibliometrics and bureaucracy in evaluation of researchers

13. Comments on Krugman´s views of Spanish economy: Salaries are not to blame and should not diminish. Productivity should increase.

12. Euro-American Association on Education and Government Quality: Clerc´s story of a frog against social manipulation

11. Report 2009: Years of Life Lost and Health Expenditure in the United States, Europe and other OECD countries. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

10. Report 2009: On Spain, the United States, Trade Deficits and top Current Account Balances. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

9. Latin America 2000-2007: The Role of Investment, Industry and Foreign Trade in economic development. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

8. China, India and other other Asian Countries: Articles by Nobel Prize L.R. Klein and other authors, published by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2001-2005

7. World Development Reports free on line 2001-2005. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

6. Cooperation with ICFAI Books of India and other news for readers. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2009.

5. Education, Quality of Government and Development in Europe, Eurasia and North America. Euro.American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2009

Entries 1 to 4. Year 2008.


42. Selected Data of Coronavirus in Europe and America in 2020 and 2021: Diminution of deaths by Covid19 by month in 2021

                  Map of Coronavirus. Source: RTVE 2020

                                                    Update of 8th May 2021.

Graph 3. Diminution of average weekly death rates, by Covid19, per 100 thousand inhabitants in 8 OECDCountries: UK, USA, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Switzerland, France and Spain, in the first months of year 2021.     

The vertical axis is the average weekly number of deaths of Covid19, per 100 thousand inhabitants, and the horizontal axis indicates de Month of year 2021: 1. January. 2. February. 3. March, 4. April and 5. May (in May the data correspond to the first week).

The effects of vaccines has implied an important drop in the rate of weekly deaths in the these 8 countries. The diminution in the weekly rates of deaths, per one thousand people, from January to the first week of May of 2021, has evolved as follows:

UK from 11.06 to 0.12, The biggest diminution of these countries (10.94)
USA from 6.68 to 1.33: diminution 5.35.
Germany from 6.35 to 1.86: diminution 4.48.
Mexico from 5.79 to 1.16: diminution 4.63.
Italy from 5.38 to 2.82: diminution 2.55.
Switzarland from 4.59 to 0.85: diminution 3.73.
France from 3.85 to 2.32: diminution 1.52
Spain from 3.57 to 1.42: diminution 2.15

Source of data. The graph was elaborated by Professor Maria-Carmen Guisan, coordinator of this Blog of World Development, with data from EP Data (Europa Press data) for deaths and data of population fron the World Bank, the Census Beaureau of the US and the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE).
Graph 4 shows the evolution of each country in the period January-May and the set of 8 OECD countries (weighted averages of 8 countries).

Graph 4. Average weekly rates of death of Covid-19, by 100 thousand inhabitants
since January to the first week of May of 2021

Update of 5th April of 2021

We have included, in other Blogs of our Euro-American Association, more information about the pandemia of Coronavirus and economic crisis of years 2020 and 2021, including graphs with the vaccines effect on the diminution of deaths since the first quarters of year 2021. Some outstanding Entries in this regard are the following ones:

Entry 42 of the the Blog Foro-Unives-2010 (in English) with information about Katalin Karikó, the Hungarian researcher working the United States who, after 40 years of hard work, opened the door to great advances on mRNA and its application in Medecine, including Coronavirus vaccines.

Blog of Spanish Economy (in Spanish): Entries 83 (of year 2021) and 79 (of year 2020) on Coronavirus in Spain, with particular attention to the quality of data.

Blog of Latin America and International Economy (in Spanish): Entry 41 and other ones.

Update of 31st December of 2020

We include two graphs corresponding to the average of montly percentages of "excess of deaths" in 30 European countries. One graph corresponds to the months of January-May of 2020 and the other one to the months of June-October, accordingly to European Data.
     Graph 1. Excess of deaths in 30 European countries: January-May of 2020

                      Graph 2. Excess of deaths in 30 European countries: June-October of 2020

The order of countries is as follows:
1 Belgium. 2 Bulgaria, 3 Czechia, 4 Denmark, 5 Germany, 6 Estonia, 7 Greece, 8 Spain, 9 France, 10 Croatia,  11 Italy, 12, Cyprus, 13 Latvia, 14 Lithuania, 15 Luxembourg, 16 Hungary,17 Malta, 18 Netherlands, 19 Austria, 20 Poland,  21 Portugal, 22 Romania, 23 Slovenia ,24 Slovakia,25 Finland, 26 Sweden, 27 Iceland, 28 Liechtenstein, 29 Norway, 30 Switzerland

First period (January-May of 2020):  the highest percentages of Excess of Deaths corresponded to countries: 8 (Spain), 1 (Belgium), 11 (Italy), 18 (Netherlands) and 26 (Sweden).

Second period (June.October of 2020): the highest percentages of Excess of Deathis corresponded to countries: 3 (Czechia), 20 (Poland), 22 (Romania), 8 (Spain), 21 (Portugal) and 17 (Malta).

                                      Update of 6th September: Preventive measures

Diminution of Lethality Rate (% of deaths on the number of cases of Coronavirus) seems to decrease after preventive measures. For example in Spain the Letality Rate from 10th March to 10th May was estimated, accordingly to the "update of 1st June of 2020", in this Entry of the Blog, as 1.8%, and provisional data for the period 10th May to 28 thAugust of 2020, allows an estimated Lethality Rate of 1.2%. 

Diminution of Mortality Rate per week  (% of excess deaths on total population) was around 0.09% for a period of 10 weeks until 10th May, what means 0.009% per week (as to say an average of 4300 deaths per week). 
For the period of 13 weeks after 10th May until the second half of August, the total number of deaths was estimated between 591 (registered data) and 2500 (provisional estimation of excess of deaths), what means a mortality rate between 0.001 and 0.005 for 13 weeks,  with an estimated average per week betweenof 0.00008 0.0004. 

                         Update of 1st June of 2020
The number of excess deaths registered by the statistics is helping us to know the real magnitude of the Coronavirus cost of human lives. In the case of Spain the figures of extra deaths, in comparison with previous years, is around 43000, most of them due to Coronavirus. This implies a Lethality Rate of 1.8% (percentage of Deaths on Total 2355000 Cases of contagious accordingly to Seroprevalence Tests). 
We expect to calculate Lethality Rates for other countries, having into account extra deaths and seroprevalence tests. UK government have estimates of seroprevalence from tests to blood donors, as published on 285th May of 2020.

Source: Public Health. England. Research and analysis
Sero-surveillance of COVID-19
We expect to have an estimator of the average rate of seroprevalence at national level.

                            Update of 23rd May 2020

The need to support scientific researchers in the fight against Coronavirus: To avoid sanitary and economic crisis of high magnitude, as the crisis of Coronavirus in year 2020, Governments and Institutions should provide the necessary resources to good scientifics that could have developed vaccines of prevention or advances for medical treatment. Here there are interesting testimonies of highly qualified researchs demanding more resources in this regard.

Inside the Frantic—and Frustrating—Race to Develop a COVID-19 Vaccine in Texas

        Doctor Peter J. Hotez and Doctor Maria-Elena Bottazzi
                       Co-Directors Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development

                  Houston, Texas, United States

“We have the experts in Texas, we have the facilities in Texas, we have the virus here, and we have the clinical people who can do the studies,” said Bottazzi, her voice rising in frustration. She is the co-director of Texas Children’s Hospital’s Center for Vaccine Development and associate dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. “We have the largest medical center in the world, and with all this combined, we should already have had this vaccine in the human population.”
Hotez, her co-director and dean of the NSTM, agreed. A normally affable scientist, he’d begun to appear angrier than might be expected for a man who favors polka-dot bow ties. That’s because, despite all of his and Bottazzi’s credentials and the urgency of the moment; despite their appeals to health officials, Congress, and the public; despite their needing only $3 million to pull the vaccine out of the freezer and start testing on people, they were stuck. Rather than leading the fight against COVID-19 from their lab, they were waging a daily battle, in emails and phone calls, against bureaucracy."

More information: In Entry 41 of our Blog in Spanish, on International Development, we include a link to intresting interviews in Spanish to Doctora Maria-Elena Bottazzi in BBC and in BronxNet TV.

Year 2020 will have many changes in Economy. Besides the challenge of measures to preven environmental damage of the Globe, we must face the new pandemic problem that have arisen with the Coronavirus Covid-19. 
It is remarkable that Governments and other institutions should show more support to researchers who work to prevent diseases and to offer more quality of life to people, both in underdeveloped and developed countries. Sometimes scientific researchers that have a good record of high quality do not receive enough support or must spent too many hours devoted to get financial aid, instead of have more time for their interesting research activities. A lesson of this pandemic should be to increase support to good researchers with good projects, particularly in the fields that good lead to present sanitary problems and avoid diseases and deaths.

Here there are some examples of scientific research addresed to get a vaccine for Coronavirus that had experiences important delays and distress due to the lack of financial support until now. The emergency of this year has contributed to increase the help and we will be very fortunate if the solutions to this problem come soon.

                             Update of 16th May 2020
On 14th May appeared information about "excess deaths", likely by Coronavirus, in several European countries, as in Voz de Galicia. Accordingly to that figures and supposing that the lethality rate would be similar to the figures of Spain and New York, with a number of deaths between 1.27% and 1.4%, the total cases shooul be revised an would be much higher than the provisional official numbers. In the case of Spain, for example the number of confirmed tests in the provisional statistics was around 200 thousand, but the estimaded cases of contagious, accordingly to the serological test of a sample of the Spanish population in all the regions was more than 2 million people.
The lethality Rate of Coronavirus seems to be 10 times higher than that of the Flu, at least with the figures of the United States. Accordingly to CDC, the Rate is 0.14 % of deaths among total Cases of Flu (or 1.4 per thousand Cases), while, accordingly to the Lethality Rate of Coronavirus with the Data of New York, there is a Rate of 1.4% of deaths among Cases of Covid-19 (or 14 per thousand Cases).

To be updated with a table

                                           Update of 14th May 2020
Revision of the Lethality Rate of Spain and New York City after serological tests.

Many countries will have revised data of Coronavirus, during the next weeks and months, which it is expected will provide a more realistic Lethality Rate or Case Fatality Rate (CFR), as to say a more realistic % of Deaths among total Cases that have been affected by Coronavirus. For example in the case of Spain, the data of 7th of May, that appear in table 1, can be revised, because the serological study, published today, provide an estimation of 5% of population affected by Coronavirus, what is more than 2 million people (2355000), instead of the 220325 that appears in Table 1 of this Entry. On the other hand we have not yet a definitve number of Deaths by Coronavirus, but quantification of extra-deaths, in comparison with previous years, indicate that around 30 thousand deaths might be due to Coronavirus in Spain for the months of March and April, instead of 25857 that appear in table 1. The Lethality Rate of Spain with 30000 deaths among 2355000 affected people, is 1.27% instead of 11.74% of table 1 of this Entry of the Blog.
Columns (1) to (5) should be, in case of confirmation of this revised data of Spain (with a population around 47.1 million), as follows:

(1) Total Cases of Spain: 2355000
(2) Deaths: 30000 (see update of 1st June of 2020)
(3) Cases per one million inhabitants: 50000
(4) Deaths per one million inhabitants: 637
(5)Lethality Rate or Case Fatality Rate (CFR):  1.27% (percentage of Deaths on Cases).

The figures for New York City (with a population of 8398748 inhabitants),  published on 14th May of 2020 by Worldometers,  indicate the following revision after serological tests, and having into account excess death analysis, until 1st may of 2020:
(1) Total Cases of New York City: 1671351 
(2) Deaths: 23430 
(3) Cases per million inhabitants: 199000
(4) Deaths per million inhabitants: 2790
(5) Lethaly Rate or Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 1.40% (percentage of Deats on Cases)

                                            Entry 42: Post of 12th May 2020

 We have selected data from reliable sources, although in many cases the information is only provisional and we expect to revise it if there are statistical revisions in the next months. This is a Report of the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, written by Professor Maria-Carmen Guisan (Economist,  Honorary Professor of Econometrics at USC, Spain). Our main aim is to show that Health Economics is important for every day life and particular in years like 2020 with high peaks in the number of patients demanding, simultaneourly, Hospital Resources. We have written about the importance of increasing the number of medical doctors, nurses and other sanitary workers in Spain and in many countries. At the end of this entry we will include links to other Entries of this Blog related with this topic.,

We highlight the following questions.

1) Data of Coronavirus from Our World In Data (OWID) (Oxford, UK). That interesting Website includes data by day of cases, deaths and related variables. From this source we have calculated the percentage of Deaths on the number of Cases. 
Table 1 shows a list of countries with more than 25000 Cases and more than 1000 Cases of Patients of Coronavirus confirmed per million people. Criteria for confirmation is usually related to positive results in PCR tests, but there are many differences among countries because some of them  test people with and without syntoms and other ones only to people with severe syntoms.  
Table 1. Countries with more than 25000 total cases,  of people affected by Coronavirus, and with more than 1000 cases, of Coronaviurs, per one million inhabitants.
Source: Colums (1) to (4) from OWID, Column (5) own calculation. Data correspond to 7th May, but in the case of Spain to 6th May. Notes: Confirmed Deaths may be undervalued in some cases in countries that do not compute, or only partially, deaths outside Hospital institutions (at home, residences, etc.) or for other reasons. Total Cases (column (1)) may be highly undervalued in countries where PCR tests where applied only to severe cases). High values in column (5) may be due to undervalues of total Cases. See update of 14th May above, for the case of Spain with an estimation of 5%, instead of 11.74%, after serological tests.

The highest rates of confirmed Deaths per million people, in table 1,  correspond to Belgium, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, France and Netherlands. 
The percentage of Deaths on the number of Cases varies between 5 and 19 in 11 out of the 16 countries. The differences may be due to different stages in the evolution of the pandemie, or to statistical problems related with total cases (undervalued or overvalued) and number of Deaths (some statistics may refere only to Hospital Deaths while others include out of Hospital deaths (home, residence, etc.) or to other problems.

  Table 2. Countries with more than 25000 Cases of Coronavirus and less than 1000 cases per one million inhabitants.
Country, 7th May of 2020
= (1) per
= (2) per
% de Death
on Cases
Saudi Arabia
Source: Colums (1) to (4) from OWID, Column (5) own calculation. Notes: Data correspond to 7th May. Confirmed Deaths may be undervalued in some cases in countries that do not compute, or only partially, deaths outside Hospital institutions (at home, residences, etc.) or for other reasons. Number of Cases may be undervalued. High values of colum (5) may be due to undervalue of Number of Cases, as indicated at the footnote of table 1.

2) Data of Coronavirus from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), (Seattle, WA, USA). Includes interesting graphs and data, by country, of Hospital Resources, including hospital beds, Intensive Care Units (ICU) beds, and Ventilators. This Webpage shows graphs of deaths per day and total deaths for the first months of year 2020 and projected until August. An important question in this regard is to compare supply and demand of ICU beds and ventilators. In some countries demand has been higher that the initial supply and it has required a lot of quick actions and efforts to increase supply and meet the needed resources. This has implied a great effort for the sanitary specialists of that units. A lesson form several countries is that there is necessary to provide more human and material resources to that units in order to avoid collapses in future health picks and crises.

A summary of data of Hospital Resources for a few countries of table 1, appear in table 3.

Table 3. Hospital beds, ICU beds and Ventilators at peak of ICU beds needs.

Hospital beds
Hospital beds
needed at peak
ICU beds
ICU beds
needed at peak
needed at peak
 Source: Data from IHME. Notes: We tried to include the 9 countries of table 1 with more than 100000 cases, but data were available only for 6 of them. The peak of ICU beds needed corresponded to the following dates: France (4th April), Germany (16th April), Italy (29th March), Spain (30th March), UK (14th April) and USA (18th April)

3) Some Indicators of Coronavirus in Spain and Comparison with the United States: Distribution by Age.

It is well known that Coronavirus death rates increase with age, particularly for population older than 80 years. Here we include a table comparing the cases of Spain and the United States with data that have been published by the Ministery of Health in Spain, for all the regions, and in the following sources for the United States:

Article by,  Garg S, Kim L, Whitaker M, et al (2020) for the United States (See reference below in section 5) of Selected Readings). These authors analyze the distribution by age for 14 states. 

Wikipedia, a list of 25 regions with data of Cases and Hospitalization in the the United States. Update of 7th of May 2020
at the Entry: "Wikipedia-Covid19-Pandemic in the United States" 

4) Other Data of Health Care Resources.

a) World Development Indicators, from World Bank: it includes data of Hospital beds per 10000 people, and Medical Doctors per 10000 people as well as data of Expenditure on medical care (public and private). 

b) Health Report of World Health Organization (WHO) of year 2019 includes in the Annex 2, pages 108, 110 and 112, data of
Density of medical doctors x (per 10 000 population) Density of nursing and midwifery personnel x (per 10 000 population) Density of dentists x (per 10 000 population) Density of pharmacists x (per 10 000 population), among other indicators.

c) Other sources for World comparisons: Wikipedia and Index Mundi, present some interesting data based on World Health Organization, country sources and other ones. The list of Wikipedia includes ICU beds per 100000 people for more than 35 countries. The list of Index Mundi, includes Medical Doctors ratio to population for many countries and territories.

5) Selected readings on Health Economics related with  Hospital Resources and Coronavirus

Corresponding authors: Shikha Garg, izj7@cdc.gov, 404-639-6142; Lindsay Kim, iyn2@cdc.gov, 404-639-5218.

Suggested citation for this article:
 Garg S, Kim L, Whitaker M, et al. Hospitalization Rates and Characteristics of Patients Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019 — COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1–30, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020;69:458–464. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6915e3external icon.

Analysis of ICU beds resources in Spain: Article available in English and Spanish.
Intensive Care Services resources in Spain , M.C. Martína,??, C. Leónb, J. Cuñatc, F. del Nogald

 Medicina Intensiva, Vol. 37. Issue 7.
pages 443-451 (October 2013

Servicio de Medicina Intensiva, Hospital Universitario de Torrejón, Torrejón de Ardoz, Madrid, Spain
Unidad Clínica de Cuidados Críticos y Urgencias, Hospital Universitario de Valme, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
Servicio de Medicina Intensiva, Hospital Universitario La Fe, Valencia, Spain
Servicio de Medicina Intensiva, Hospital Severo Ochoa, Leganés, Madrid, Spain

Articles at Ideas-Repec. related with 'Coronavirus Hospital', many of them free downloadable:
  1. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mehdi Feizi & Hassan F. Gholipour (2020): Globalization and outbreak of COVID-19: An empirical analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between globalization, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, and associated deaths in more than 100 countries. Our ordinary least squares multivariate regressions show that countries with higher levels of socio-economic globalization are exposed more to COVID-19 outbreak. Nevertheless, globalization cannot explain cross-country differences in COVID-19 confirmed deaths. The fatalities of coronavirus are mostly explained by cross-country variation in health infrastructures (e.g., share of out of pocket spending on health per capita and the number of hospital beds) and demographic structure (e.g., share of population beyond 65 years old in total population) of countries. ... This finding provides the first empirical insight on the robust determinants of COVID-19 outbreak and its human costs across countries.
  1. Eric Kemp-Benedict (2020): Macroeconomic impacts of the public health response to COVID-19

The economic impact of public health measures to contain the COVID-19 novel coronavirus is a matter of contentious debate. ... The post-Keynesian macroeconomic sub-model is a stylized representation of the United States economy with three sectors: core, social (most impacted by social distancing), and hospital, which may experience excessive demand.
  1. Martin Gustafsson (2020): How does South Africa’s Covid-19 response compare globally?

The dataset is known as the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, or OxCGRT. ... Having fewer hospital beds relative to the population is associated with a more stringent response, for instance. ... If one examines the lag between a country’s first Covid-19 case and workplace restrictions of maximum stringency, South Africa was about average. Absolute numbers of deaths, or Covid-19 deaths relative to how many deaths a country could have expected anyway in 2020, provide what is probably the best basis for comparing, across multiple countries, the speed with which Covid-19 multiplies. There is clearly a large variety of trajectories for Covid-19 deaths across countries.
RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers342  Save to MyIDEAS 
  1. Miguel Casares & Hashmat Khan (2020): A Dynamic Model of COVID-19: Contagion and Implications of Isolation Enforcement

We present a dynamic model that produces day-to-day changes in key variables due to the COVID-19 contagion: both accumulated and currently infected people, deaths, recovered, and infected people who require hospitalization. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain and it is able to replicate fairly well the observed series of daily deaths. Next, the effects of isolation enforcement are examined and we find that the Spanish government’s declaration of the State of Alarm (March 14th, 2020) is estimated to have cut the number of deaths by 92.5% and the number of hospital beds needed by 95%, relative to the no intervention scenario.
  1. David Gershon & Alexander Lipton & Hagai Levine (2020): Managing COVID-19 Pandemic without Destructing the Economy

We analyze an approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic without shutting down the economy while staying within the capacity of the healthcare system. ... We model the healthcare capacity as the total number of hospital and ICU beds for the whole country.
RePEc:arx:papers:2004.10324  Save to MyIDEAS 
  1. Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes (2020): Incidence of COVID-19 and Connections with Air Pollution Exposure : Evidence from the Netherlands

The fast spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has resulted in the emergence of several hot-spots around the world. ... This study investigates the relationship between exposure to particulate matter and COVID-19 incidence in 355 municipalities in the Netherlands. The results show that atmospheric particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 is a highly significant predictor of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and related hospital admissions. The estimates suggest that expected COVID-19 cases increase by nearly 100 percent when pollution concentrations increase by 20 percent. ... The findings call for further investigation into the association between air pollution and SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.
  1. Andre Maia Chagas & Jennifer C Molloy & Lucia L Prieto-Godino & Tom Baden (2020): Leveraging open hardware to alleviate the burden of COVID-19 on global health systems

With the current rapid spread of COVID-19, global health systems are increasingly overburdened by the sheer number of people that need diagnosis, isolation and treatment. Shortcomings are evident across the board, from staffing, facilities for rapid and reliable testing to availability of hospital beds and key medical-grade equipment. ... Here, we summarise community-driven approaches based on Free and Open Source scientific and medical Hardware (FOSH) as well as personal protective equipment (PPE) currently being developed and deployed to support the global response for COVID-19 prevention, patient treatment and diagnostics.In light of the Covid-19 pandemic, this Community Page article discusses the projects, pitfalls and possibilities regarding open source personal protective equipment, ventilators and diagnostics.
  1. Umesh Adhikari & Alexandre Chabrelie & Mark Weir & Kevin Boehnke & Erica McKenzie & Luisa Ikner & Meng Wang & Qing Wang & Kyana Young & Charles N. Haas & Joan Rose & Jade Mitchell (2019): A Case Study Evaluating the Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERSCoV) in a Hospital Setting Through Bioaerosols

Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome, an emerging viral infection with a global case fatality rate of 35.5%, caused major outbreaks first in 2012 and 2015, though new cases are continuously reported around the world. Transmission is believed to mainly occur in healthcare settings through aerosolized particles. This study uses Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to develop a generalizable model that can assist with interpreting reported outbreak data or predict risk of infection with or without the recommended strategies. The exposure scenario includes a single index patient emitting viruscontaining aerosols into the air by coughing, leading to short and longrange airborne exposures for other patients in the same room, nurses, healthcare workers, and family visitors. Aerosol transport modeling was coupled with Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the risk of MERS illness for the exposed population.
  1. Shenglan Xiao & Yuguo Li & Tze-wai Wong & David S C Hui (2017): Role of fomites in SARS transmission during the largest hospital outbreak in Hong Kong

Our results reveal that under the assumed conditions, the SARS coronavirus was most possible to have spread via the combined long-range airborne and fomite routes, and that the fomite route played a non-negligible role in the transmission.
  1. Youting Guo & Jason Shachat & Matthew J. Walker & Lijia Wei (2020): Viral Social Media Videos Can Raise Pro-Social Behaviours When an Epidemic Arises

Shortly after the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in Wuhan, China, we conducted an experiment assessing the impact of viral videos on individual preferences and pro-social behaviour. Prior to the experiment, participants viewed one of three videos culled from Chinese social media: a central government leader visiting a local hospital and supermarket, health care volunteers transiting to Wuhan, or an emotionally neutral video unrelated to the emergency.

  1. Shenglan Xiao & Yuguo Li & Tze-wai Wong & David S C Hui (2017): Role of fomites in SARS transmission during the largest hospital outbreak in Hong Kong
    Our results reveal that under the assumed conditions, the SARS coronavirus was most possible to have spread via the combined long-range airborne and fomite routes, and that the fomite route played a non-negligible role in the transmission.
  2. Youting Guo & Jason Shachat & Matthew J. Walker & Lijia Wei (2020): Viral Social Media Videos Can Raise Pro-Social Behaviours When an Epidemic Arises
    Shortly after the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in Wuhan, China, we conducted an experiment assessing the impact of viral videos on individual preferences and pro-social behaviour. Prior to the experiment, participants viewed one of three videos culled from Chinese social media: a central government leader visiting a local hospital and supermarket, health care volunteers transiting to Wuhan, or an emotionally neutral video unrelated to the emergency.
  3. Sarah Shalhoub & Fahad Al-Hameed & Yasser Mandourah & Hanan H Balkhy & Awad Al-Omari & Ghaleb A Al Mekhlafi & Ayman Kharaba & Basem Alraddadi & Abdullah Almotairi & Kasim Al Khatib & Ahmed Abdulmomen & Ismael Qushmaq & Ahmed Mady & Othman Solaiman & Abdulsalam M Al-Aithan & Rajaa Al-Raddadi & Ahmed Ragab & Abdulrahman Al Harthy & Eman Al Qasim & Jesna Jose & Ghassan Al-Ghamdi & Laura Merson & Robert Fowler & Frederick G Hayden & Yaseen M Arabi (2018): Critically ill healthcare workers with the middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS): A multicenter study
    Background: Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) leads to healthcare-associated transmission to patients and healthcare workers with potentially fatal outcomes. ... Median number of days from hospital discharge until the questionnaires were filled was 580 (95% CI 568, 723.5) days. ... Hospital mortality rate was substantial (25%).
  4. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Simon Mongey (2020): An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine
    Testing at a higher rate in conjunction with targeted quarantine policies can (i) dampen the economic impact of the coronavirus and (ii) reduce peak symptomatic infections—relevant for hospital capacity constraints.
  5. David W. Berger & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Simon Mongey (2020): An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine
    Testing at a higher rate in conjunction with targeted quarantine policies can (i) dampen the economic impact of the coronavirus and (ii) reduce peak symptomatic infections—relevant for hospital capacity constraints.