12. Euro-American Association on Education and Government Quality: Clerc´s story of a frog against social manipulation

Entry 12 by Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics, Spain

Broken links to videos. To update in November of 2023

Readers may see the video in English in this entry or by clicking here. To see an interview in English to the author of the "story of a frog", the philosopher from Switzeralnd, Olivier Clerc, click here. There are other versions in  French, Spanish and Italian.

In entry 13 of our Spanish Blog there is also a link to a nice and interesting video on "Education in Finland", explaining how the educational level of population usually contributes to increase the quality of government, selection of advisors and voice of citizens  In the right column of that blog there are links to several videos related with economic development and quality of life.

The Video of the  "Story of a Frog" tell us about the importance of Citizens Voice in Government Quality. Education usually contributes to foster Citizens Voice and Government Effectiveness. Econometrics research also shows those positive effects. Educated population has an important role to avoid manipulation of public opinion and to foster good quality of life for all.
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11. Report 2009: Years of Life Lost and Health Expenditure in the United States, Europe and other OECD countries. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

We hope that controversies around Health assistance organization in the USA will achieve enough social agreement in order to allow all the populaltion to benefit from a good and affordable health assistance at least in the same degree that it happens in the major countries of Western Europe and other industrialized countries. It does not mean necessarity that public systems will substitute private health assistance, because each country may decide a mix of both public and private systems to operate in order to offer a good system to all the population.

In the interesting survey: "Education, Health and Economic Development: A Survey of Quantitative Economic Studies, 2001-2009, by Guisan, M.C. (2009)", published in our journal RSES Vol. 9-2, we analyze the relationship between "health expenditure per capita" and Years of Potential Life Lost. The article is free downloadable (clicking on the title to go to the Abstract page, and then on "download" within that page).

Graph 3. YPLLF (or PYLLF): Years of potential life lost per 100 thousand female population and Health expenditure per capita in OECD countries year 2005

Source: Elaborated by Guisan(2009) from OECD, WHO and WDI atistics. Health Expenditure per capita is expressed in dollars at 2005 prices and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs).

Graph 4. YPLLM (o PYLLM): Years of potential life lost per 100 thousand male population and Health expenditure per capita in OECD countries, year 2005

Source: Elaborated by Guisan(2009) from OECD, WHO and WDI statistics Health expenditure per capita in Dollars at 2005 prices and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs).

Entry 11 by Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics, Spain

Potential Years of Life Lost, PYLL (also know as YPLL: Years of Potential Life Lost) is measured by the number of years of life lost by people who died below 70 years old, per each 100 thousand inhabitants), PYLLF refers to female population and PYLLM to male population. This variable usually diminish when health expenditure per capita increases, although other factors are also important to lower the level of this prematural deaths, such as those related with the facilities to use health assistance services, if necessary, by all the population in all the geographical and social areas of the country, and other ones related with other risks that experience population such as risky jobs, health habits of life, and other ones.

We notice that several factors, such as risky jobs and activities among other ones, play an important role to explain the big differences between PYLLM and PYLLF, as in all the analysed countries PYLLM was substantially higher than PYLLF. It is striking to notice that the United States has the highest value of health expenditure per head but much higher values of PYLLF and PYLLM than those which should correspond to the degree of expenditure and quality of health assistance. Accordingly to recent reports on health assitance improvements it is clearly desirable that the USA may reach lower values of PYLLM and PYLLF in the next years.

Education has generally a highly positive impact on real production per capita, and real production usually help to increase the level of health expenditure per head. The increase of health expenditure per capita usually leads, with proper organization, to clear increases in health welfare and to clear diminutions of potential years of life lost. It is good news the current reforms aimed to increase coverage of health insurance to many millions of Northamerican citizens who did not enjoy this important service until now.

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10. Report 2009: On Spain, the United States, Trade Deficits and top Current Account Balances. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

Graph 2: Current Account Balance per capita in top 18 countries with highest balance deficits. Source: Euro-American Asoc of Eco. Dev. Studies, elaborated from international sources. Development Report August 2009.

Note The order of the countries in graph 2 is the same of graph 1 (see list below).

Graph 1: Top Current Account Balances of the World (Bn dollars: thousand millions in 2008): 18 countries with highest superavit and 18 countries with highest deficits.

Source: Euro-American Asoc of Eco. Dev. Studies from international sources. Devalopment Report August 2009 http://euroamericanassociation.blogspot.com/Source: Euro-American Asoc of Eco. Dev. Studies from international sources. Devalopment Report August 2009 http://euroamericanassociation.blogspot.com/

Entry 10 by Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics, Spain

Comments to Graph 2. The higher deficits per inhabitant (Current Account Balance per capita below -3000 dollars per inhabitant) corresponds to country number 2 (Spain) and number 9 (Greece). The degree of deficit per head is lower than 2000 dollars in a great majority (14 out of 18 top total deficit countries), including the case of the United States. It is much higher in the cases of Spain and Greece, with more than 3000 dollars of deficit per capita, what is a problem, having into account that those countries have a low degree of industrial development and they should foster industry for sustaineable development of other production sectors. Countries by total deficit in graph 2 appear in the same order than the countrydeficit countries of graph 1.

Comments to Graph 1: The 18 highest Current Account Balance Deficits of the World in year 2008 (negative values in red in Graph 1), correspond to: 1. the United States, 2. Spain, 3. the United Kingdom , 4. Italy , 5. France, 6.Turkey, 7. Australia, 8. India, 9. Greece, 10. Poland, 11. Romania, 12. Brazil, 13. Portugal, 14. South Africa, 15. Ukraine, 16. Mexico, 17. Vietnam and 18.  Bulgaria, while the 18 highest Current Account Balance superavits (positive values in blue in Graph 1) in the same year correspond to: 1. China, 2. Germany, 3. Japan, 4. Saudi Arabia, 5. Russia, 6. Norway, 7. Kuwait, 8. Venezuela, 9. the Netherlands, 10. Libya, 11. Switzerland, 12. United Arab Emirates, 13. Algeria, 14. Sweden, 15. Singapore, 16. Iran, 17. Malaysia and 18. Taiwan.

Causes and consequences of deficits and superavits:

Superavit in some cases correspond to oil exports and in other cases to countries interested in diminishing their international debt or interested in investment abroad in order to increase economic returs and development. Superavits are usually good for a country if the returns from this superavits, usually invested abroad, have direct and/or indirect positive effects on domestic economic development as it usually happens.

Balance deficits respond to different types of situations and have different effects on economic development:

1) Countries highly industrialized, which are attractive and open to foreing investment in domestic markets in order to foster Imports capacity and production in some economic sectors. Correspond to this group the United States, the United Kingdom and France. The effect is usually positive. In this cases foreign resources are supplementary of domestic resources and usually positive.

2) Countries of middle level of industrialization, which do not foster enough industrial growth and develop economic policies addressed to increase international debt in order to finance Imports and foster building and services activities. In these cases, such as Spain in the period 2004-2008, and at a less extent before 2004, foreign resources are used ad substitutes of domestic industrialization and have short run positive effects but this police may lead to long run negative effects it is not accompanied by increase in industrialization and good conditions of international debt (low cost, sustainability, stability and other ones).

3) Countries of low level of industrialization: Usually a Current Account Deficit is positive and necessary to foster economic development, based on international cooperation and investment.

The role of Exports, Imports and Current Account Balance:
International Econometric models show that foreign trade is usually positively associated with economic development, partly because Exports foster economic development from the demand side (more purcharsers of the goods and services produced by the country) and partly because Exports increase the capacity to increase Imports of raw materials and other goods which have a highly positive effect from the supply side, allowing the country to expand domestic production, usually both in industrial and non industiral sectors. Although the role of the demand has been widely studied and recognized, the important role of supply has unfortunately received less attention in economic studies and policies. Interesting articles in this regard, free downloadble, are included in our journal IJAEQS Vol. 3-1 for the cases of Europe and North America, and in Vol. 4-1 for Asia, Africa and Latin America (to access click on the selected article and then click on "Download" at the Abstract page).

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9. Latin America 2000-2007: The Role of Investment, Industry and Foreign Trade in economic development. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

                                                Latin America 2000-2007
     

Entry 9 by Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics, Spain

Economic development in Latin America has experienced a positive evolution in the period 2000-2007, althought it could have been higher in case of more industrialization. The low levels of industrial real Value-Added per capita in comparison with OECD countries explains, at a great degree, the lower levels of real income per capita in Latin American countries.

    The following graph shows the relationships between increase of real GDP per capita in the period 2000-2007 and the level of industrial development at the beginning of that period. Of course the increase in industrialización during the period has also a positive impact on the development of services and other sectors, and thus on real GDP per capita.

                                      

                     Increase of real GDP per capita and industrialización in Latin America

          

                         Source: Elaboration by the Euro-American Association from World Bank indicators

 The important role of industry, together with human capital, social capital, foreign trade and other factors is well explained in the figures presented in the article by Guisan(2009), free on line at Volume 9-1 of the journal AEID
Other articles published by our Association of interest for economic development in Latin America are listed
in our Blog of International Economics in Spanish. We will include here a list of those published in English.

Home of the Blog in English: http://euroamericanassociation.blogspot.com/

Blog in Spanish on Latin America and International Development:

https://economiaydesarrollointernacional.blogspot.com

8. China, India and other other Asian Countries: Articles by Nobel Prize L.R. Klein and other authors, published by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2001-2005

Professor Lawrence R.Klein. Univestiy of Pennsylvania (USA).

 Laureate Nobel Prize of Economics 1980 and Honrary Member of our Association since year 2001 to 2013.

Entry 8 by Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics, Spain



Articles published in our journal AEID (Applied Econometrics and International Development) for the period 2001-2005, are now free downloadable at our jounal Website

We highlight the interesting article by Nobel Prize Lawrence R. Klein:

KLEIN, L.R. (2004). "China and India: Two Asian Economic Giants, Two Different Systems" AEID Vol. 4-1.

Updated on 20th April-2024:

 Studies on China and India published by the Blog´s coordinator, Professor Matia-Carmen Guisan, free downloadable at Ideas.Repec, for the years 2021-202.

  Year 2024: Chapter in the Book by Guisan(2024): Education, Freedom, International Development and Quality of Life, 2001-2023. More information at Entry 53 of this Blog.

Chapter 6 available at Ideas.Repec:  EE-chapters

Chapter 6. Development Studies of Asia and Oceania, 2001-2023

6.1. Studies of 2004-2020: Investment and Development  ………………………. 101

6.2. Development of India and China, 1950-2020 ……………………………….. 105

6.3. Studies of 2021 and 2022: Quality of Life in Asia and Pacific ……………… 106

Article in AEID Year 2021

Employment by Sector and Development in India for 1950-2020 and International Comparisons with China and OECD Countries, Guisan, M.C. Abstract

First version Entry 8: articles for the period 2001-20025

List of articles on China, India and other Asian countries published in AEID, 2001-2005 and free downloadable at http://www.usc.es/economet/aeid.htm are:

Year 2005.
* Foodgrain Price Policies in India: The Effects on Foodgrain Production and Rural Poverty 1951-2001
Vol. 5, No. 3, 2005, Edgar J. Wilson
* Intra-Industry Trade in Manufactures between Thailand and Other Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Countries, Vol. 5, No. 4, 2005 Sujinda Chemsripong , Julie Lee and Frank W. Agbola
*The Sources and Dynamics of Inflation in Indonesia: An Ecm Model Estimation for 1952-2002, Vol. 5, No. 4, 2005 Akhand Akhtar Hossain
* Trade Reforms and Economic Integration in South Asia: SAARC to SAPTA, Vol. 5, No. 4, 2005 Mamta B. Chowdhury
*What's Happening to Per Capita GDP in the ASEAN Countries?. An Analysis of Convergence, 1960-2001, Vol. 5, No. 3, 2005 Khorshed Chowdhury
*Financing Rural Infrastructure in Developing Countries: The Case of India, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2005 Indira Rajaraman
Year 2004
*Does the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Hold for Asian Countries? An Empirical Analysis Using Panel Data and Cointegration Tests, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2004, Imed Drine and Christophe Rault
*Human Capital, Trade and Development in India, China, Japan and Other Asian Countries, 1960-2002: Econometric Models and Causality Tests, Vol. 4, No. 3, 2004 Maria-Carmen Guisan
Indian Economy in the Next Five Years: Key Issues and Challenges, 2005-2009, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2004 Krishna Chaitanya V.
* Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries, 1978-1997, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2004 Laszlo Matyas , Laszlo Konya and Mark N. Harris
* Budget Deficits and Other Macroeconomic Variables in India, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2004 Srivyal Vuyyuri and S. Venkata Seshaiah
* China and India: Two Asian Economic Giants, Two Different Systems, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2004 Lawrence R. Klein
* Dynamics of Exchange Rate Fluctuations between Yen and the Us-Dollar, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2004 T. Obara
* Linkages of Indian Interest Rates with US and Japanese Rates, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2004 Srivyal Vuyyuri
Year 2003
* Application of Langevin Equation in Econometrics to the Interaction between the Exchange Rates of Japan and South Korea, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2003 T. Obara
* Competitiveness, Productivity and Export Performance of Indian Private Firms, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2003 Lakshmi K. Raut
* Education, Industry, Trade and Development in Asia-Pacific Countries in 1980-99, Vol. 3, No. 2, 2003 Maria-Carmen Guisan and Pilar Exposito
Year 2002
* The Impact of Foreign Banks on Market Concentration: The Case of India, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2002, Milind Sathye
Year 2001
* Economic Development of African and Asia-Pacific Areas in 1951-99, Vol. 1, No. 2, 2001, Maria-Carmen Guisan , Pilar Exposito

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7. World Development Reports free on line 2001-2005. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

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World Development Reports published by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies for the years 2001-2005, are here free downloadable. 

Entry 7 by Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics, Spain

 These articles point to the important role of Education, Industry and Trade in improving socio-economic development.

To access each article, please click on "Abstract" and then on "Download" within the Abstract pag, or go to AEID Website: http://www.usc.es/economet/aeid.htm

Education and World Development in 1900-1999: A General View and Challenges for the Near Future, Guisan, M.C., Aguayo, E. and Exposito, P. Abstract

Economic Development of American and European Areas in 1951-99, Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. Abstract

Economic Development of African and Asia-Pacific Areas in 1951-9, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, E. Abstract

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of American Countries in 1980-99 Abstract y article

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of African Countries in 1980-99Abstract y article

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of European and Eurasian Countries in 1980-99. Abstract

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of Asia-Pacific countries in 1980-99. Abstract

Human Capital and Economic Development in Africa, 1950-2002,. Abstract

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6. Cooperation with ICFAI Books of India and other news for readers. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2009.

 Guisan(2005). Macro-Econometric Models: The Role of Demand and Supply.

Entry 6 by Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics, Spain

Our Association was glad to cooperate with the interesting publications of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts, ICFAI, of Hyderabad (India) with several chapters in books and, particularly, with this full book, edited by the President of our Association, Professor Maria-Carmen Guisan, in year 2005, on the role of Demand and Supply on Macro-Econometrics Models. The book has been published in printed edtion. We would like to suggest a link to the  online version but we did not find it.

            FREE DOWNLOADABLE ACCESS TO RELATED STUDIES

We may offer free donwloadable on line access to several articles on India, related with the contents of that Book on Macro-econometric Models of Demand and Supply,  published for the period 2001-2023, by economists of our research team and by authors who have contributed to this book in the journal "Applied Econometrics and International Development"

Employment by Sector and Development in India for 1950-2020 and International Comparisons with China and OECD Countries, Guisan, M.C.Abstract

Evaluation of Gold Market in India and its Price Determinants, Seshaiah, S.V., Sarma, I.R.S., Tiwari, A.K.  Abstract 

The Current Account Deficits: A Case of Indian Economy, Seshaiah, S.V. Abstract

Savings and Investment in India: The Feldstein Horioka Puzzle, Seshaiah, S. V. Abstract

Direct Foreign Investments In India: Potential & Performance of FDI Inflows from United States as Strategic Major Investor, Vazquez Rozas, E., Vadlamannati, K.C. Abstract

Stock Prices And Its Relation With Crude Oil Prices And Exchange Rates in India,  Seshaiah, S.V.  and Behera, C. Abstract

Are Indian Exports and Imports Cointegrated?, Konya, L. and Singh, J.P. Abstract

Indian Capital Market Integration with Select Developed and Developing Countries,  Seshaiah, S. V.  Abstract

Savings and Investment In India, 1970-2002: A Cointegration Approach, Seshaiah, S.V. and Vuyyuri, S.  Abstract  

Human Capital, Trade and Development in India, China, Japan and other Asian Countries, 1960-2002: Econometric Models and Causality Tests, by Guisan, M.C. Abstract  (pp.123-139)

China and India: Two Asian Economic Giants, Two Different Systems, by Klein, L. R. Abstract (pp. 7-19)  (Nobel Prize and Honorary member of The Advisory Board of the Euro-American Association of Economci Development Studies).

         EBOOKS IN ENGLISH DOWNLOADABEL IN YEAR 2023

          

  There are several interesting books in English, related with macroeconometric models of growth and development, published by our Association.  Some of them appear since year 2023 at our ebooks series at Ideas.Repec as those announced at the Entries 51 and 52 of this Blog.

     

Contents of the book published by ICFAI in year 2005:

The book published by "ICFAI books" includes interesting contributions for development policies, by outstanding authors who have previously published related articles in our journal AEID, in the following chapters:

1. Maria-Carmen GUISAN (Spain): The Role of Demand and Supply in Economic Development

2. Abbas VALADKHANI (Australia): Macroeconometric Modelling Approches and Experiences in Developing Countries.

3. Maria-Carmen GUISAN (Spain): Human Capital, Trade and Development in India, China, Japan and other Asian Countries, 1960-2002. Econometric Models and Causality Effects.

4. S. Venkata SESHAIAH and Srivya VUYYURI (India): Savings and Investment in India. A Cointegration Approach.

5. Maria-Carmen GUISAN and Pilar EXPOSITO (Spain): Human Capital and Development in Africa. Econometric Models and Evolution, 1950-2002.

6. Giorgios KARRAS (USA): Trade Opennes and Economic Growth Revisited. An Updated Estimate of the Long-Run Effect.

7. Felicitas NOWAK-LEHMANN D (Germany): Trade Policy and its Impact on Economic Growth: The Chilean Experience in the Period 1960-1998.
8. RAJAGOPAL (Mexico): Institutional Reforms and Trade-Competitiveness in Latin America.
9. Maria-Carmen GUISAN and Maria-Teresa CANCELO (Spain): Econometric Models of Foreign Trade in OECD Countries.
10. Laszlo MATYAS, Laszlo KONYA and Mark N. HARRIS (Hungary and Australia): Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries, 1978-1997.
11. Juan PIÑEIRO, Haider A. KHAN, David N. MELIKIYAN and Artur TAMAZIAN (Spain and USA): Financial Market Efficiency, Institutions and Growth: An International Econometric Analysis for 1997-2002.

Other Messages for Readers. Updated on July of 2009:

Since May of 2009 all the articles of years 2001 to 2005 are free downloadable at the AEID Website as well as some articles published since year 2006. For journal RSES free downloads include articles of years 2001 to 2006 and a few articles published since year 2007. For journal EEDI/ESID articles of years 2001 to 2007 are freedownloadable as well as a few articles among those published since 2008. All the articles of journal IJAEQS are free downloadable as it is an Open Access journal.

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5. Education, Quality of Government and Development in Europe, Eurasia and North America. Euro.American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2009

Foto: Daniel Kaufmann. The Brookings Instutions (USA) .Governance Matters.

Entry 5 by Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics, Spain

We announce the publication of an interesting article in Vol. 9-1 of journal AEID; where we analyse the significant positive effect of education and quality of Government on economic development, thanks to the interesting indicators of Government quality published by Kaufmann, Kray and Mastruzzi in "Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for 1996-2007".

Government Effectiveness, Education, Economic Development and Well-Being: Analysis of European Countries in Comparison with the United States and Canada, 2000-2007, Guisan, M.C. Abstract

For full access to the article, please click on "Abstract" and then in "downolad" at the abstract page.

The articles points to the important positive role of government effectiveness on economic development and the positive impact of education and voice of citizens on government effectiveness and development.

Other studies: The important positive role of education on economic development is also analysed, together with other factors, in several interesting articles published in journal AEID, many free dowloadable at: http://www.usc.es/economet/aeid.htm

An Econometric Model of Industry, Trade and Economic Development of Philippines, 1990-2006, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, P.

What Does the Human Development Index Tell Us about Convergence?, Konya, L. and Guisan, M.C. Abstract

On Wage Formation, Wage Development and Flexibility: A Comparison Between European Countries and The United States, Peeters. H.M.M. and Den Reijer, A.H.J. Abstract

Socio-economic Determinants of Development in World Economy, 1820-2005 Bildirici and Sunal Abstract

Education, Development and Health Expenditure in Africa: A cross-section model of 39 countries in 2000-2005, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito

Economic Determinants of Development in World Economy, 1920-2005. An Analysis of 165 Countries. Bildirici, M. and Sunal, S.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: A New Empirical Evidence from the Mena Countries, 1989-2001, Al-Zubi, K., Al-Rjoub,S. Abu-Mhareb,E Abstract

Direct and Indirect Effects of Human Capital on World Development, 1960-2004, by Guisan, M.C. and Neira, I. Abstract

Influence of Research and Development Expenditures on Number of Patent Applications: Selected Case Studies in OECD countries and Central Europe, 1981-2001, Prodan, I. Abstract

World Development Report: Industry and Economic Development in Latin America, 1980-2002, Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. Abstract

Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Development Countries, Valadkhani, A. Abstract

World Development Report: Human Capital and Economic Development in Africa: An Econometric Analysis for 1950-2002, by Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, P.

World Development Report: Human Capital, Trade and Development in India, China, Japan and other Asian Countries, 1960-2002: Econometric Models and Causality Tests, by Guisan, M.C.

Comparative Studies of European Countries: Employment, Population and Regional Development in Western and Central Europe. Econometric Models and Challenges of EU Enlargement, by Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. Abstract (pp. 129-142)

World Development Reports: Education, Industry, Trade and Development of Asia-Pacific countries in 1980-99, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, Po.

World Development Reports: Education, Industry, Trade and Development of European and Eurasian Countries in 1980-99. Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E.

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of African Countries in 1980-99, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, P.

Employment and Regional Development in Italy by Guisan, M. C. and Aguayo, E.
Education, Industry, Trade and Development of American Countries in 1980-99, Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E.
Econometric model of Services Sector Development and Impact of Tourism in Latin American Countries by Aguayo, E.; Exposito, P. and Lamelas, N.

Employment and Regional Development in Germany by Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E.

Economic Development of African and Asia-Pacific Areas in 1951-99, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, P.

Employment and Regional Development in France by Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. Abstract y article

Education and World Development in 1900-1999: A General View and Challenges for the Near Future, Guisan, M.C., Aguayo, E. and Exposito, P.

Economic Development of American and European Areas in 1951-99. Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E.

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