World Economic Development and International Cooperation

18. Impact of Trade Deficit on crisis and drop of Industrial production in the USA and 5 European major countries: France, Germany Italy, Spain and UK

2011-08-23T18:15:00.013+02:00

Graph 1. Real Value-Added of Industry per capita in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. Source: Elaborated by Guisan(2011) from OECD statistics.

Graph 2. Trade Balance of EU27 and industrial real value-added of EU5. Source: Elaborated by Guisan(2011) from Eurostat Statistics. Left axis for Extra-EU27 Trade Balance. Right axis for Value-Added of Industry. Source: Elaborated by Guisan(2011) from Eurostat and OECD statistics.

Industrial production in the Europea Union for 2000-2010: The lack of enough european policies of support to industrial production have led to decreasing real Value-Added of industry and increasing trade deficits in the balance of goods of EU27, as it is shown in the graph 2 above.

The impact of wrong policies on industrail development of many European countries has been very strong for the period 2008-2010, and some politicians and citizens are showing concern and disagreement with the EU policies in this regard. Diminution of industrial production implies negative consequences for the European Union such as lower production in other sectors, more unemployment and increse of international debt.

Graph 1 shows the evolution of real Value-Added of industry per capita in the 5 major European Union countries (those with highest levels of Gross Domestic Product and Population) for the period 1985-2010.

European Union problems: The European Union documents usually assumes that "The EU´s external trade policiy contributes to Europe´s competitiveness in foreign markets" and includes declaration as the following one: "The EU has a common trade policy whereby the European Commission negotiates trade agreements and represents the EU´s interest on behalf of its 27 Member States. The European Commission consults Member States through an advisory committee which discusses the full range of trade policy issues affecting the Community including multilateral, bilateral and unilateral instruments". In spite of these declarations many people think that policies for industrial development and less deficit should be addressed.

It is clear that the European public opinion and many leaders do not agree with those trade policies that have led to increase indebtness and diminution of industrial development. Some reactions are active in France and the United Kingdom, and surely in other countries, which may be of interest to recover industrial development and favor a balanced trade of the European Union with extra-UE partners, or at least to diminish the trade deficit.

Trade deficit in EU27: In fact in year 2009 the trade balance was negative in 17 countries, positive in 10, and negative for EU27 as a whole.

Countries with positive trade balance of goods in 2009: Belgium, Czec Rep., Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Netherlands, Slovakia and Sweden.

Countries with negative trade balance of goods in 2009: Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, France, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain and the United Kingdom.

The most positive balance in Euros per capita, more than 1000 € in year 2009, corresponded to Belgium (1194), Denmark (1465), Germany (1644), Ireland (8568), Netherlands (2380).

The most negative balance in Euros per capita, less than -1000 € in year 2009, corresponded to Cyprus (-5918), Greece (-2531), Luxembourg (-4940), Malta (-3283), Portugal (-1787), Spain (-1081) and the United Kingdom (-1513).

Crisis and solutions: The European Union should show concern about high deficits in extra-EU trade, particularly if those deficits lead to diminution of industrial production per capita, particular if dismantling EU´s industry is not accompanied by an increase in the International Investment Position or in other variables that can guarantee sustained development. European Economic Policies should be adressed to diminish deficit in extra-EU balance for the EU as a whole and to make sustainable the intra-EU imbalances among countries. Sustainability presents to options: 1) all EU countries would promote industrial development to a degree enough to guarantee real convergence with the most advanced economies. 2) European Unions would guarantee flows of credit from EU countries with superavit to EU countries with deficit, like among different regions of a single country. European Parliamente and Commission may choose a mix of both options, but they should offer to all EU countries opportunities for sustainable development.

Selected newspaper article on industrial problems in EU countries:

Telegraph: Where will Britaint´s manufacturing revival come from?, by Louisa Peacok, 2nd June 2011.

17 Crisis, Development, Voice of Good Economists in Greece, Portugal and Spain, and comparison with other OECD countries. Euro-American Association Development Report 2011.

2011-05-13T22:22:00.019+02:00

Source: Guisan(2011) based on OECD National Accounts Statistics

Greece: beautiful Egina

The graph shows real value-added per capital in industrial sectors. One of the main causes of economic crisis in Greece, Portugal and Spain is their low level of industrial development in comparison with more advanced OECD countries. Countries with low levels of industrial production per head very often experience twin deficits: 1) unbalanced foreign trade, with more imports than exports, and 2) government deficit because, as a result of the low level of industrialization, income from taxes and other sources is below the amount needed to provide satisfactory levels of public services. The attemps to foster production in building and services without a proper development of industry per capita, like it has happened in Spain and other countries for the period 1995-2007, is usually unsustainable and lead to economic crisis as it has happened in Spain for the period 2008-2010.

There are good economists in those countries but unfortuantely policy makers usually do not listen to their good advice. People do not expend too much, but instead most people in those countries work hard and expend little. It is not fair to throw blame on citizens for the causes of the crisis when the main cause is the lack of good economic policies, at national and European Union level, in order to foster industrial development.

Here we will include references to interesting articles and Websites where good economists give useful advice to improve development and avoid economic crises in those countries.

LISTEN TO THE VOICE OF GOOD ECONOMISTS AND GET OUT OF THE CRISIS

Recommended readings about crisis and development in Greece:

"Development is the only solution. Seventeen Proposals for a New Development Stategy", Azariadis, C.(Washington Universitry, MO, USA), Ioannides, Y. (Tufts University,MD,USA), Pissarides, A. (LSE, London UK) (2010).
"Is there a strategy that can free Greece from the grip of today´s unprecedental economic and social crisis and place her on a path of sustainable development and solid prosperity? The signers of this article believe that the answer is yes if the country is willing to go beyond the measures of fiscal austerity and market reform advised by the EU-ECB.IMF "troika". We predict that market reforms will not succeed unles they are supplemented by powerful pro-growth policies. The real choice of Greece is not between solvency and default or between reform and stagnation; it is between prosperity and underdevelopment". See full article

Website on Greek Development: http://greekeconomistsforreform.com/

Recommended readings about the positive impact of manufacturing on development, through intersectoral relationships in Europe, America and other areas:

Guisan, M.C.(2006).”Industry, Foreign Trade and Development: Econometric Models of Europe and North America, 1965-2003” International Journal of Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol.3-1. Article free on line: click on "Download"" at: http://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/ijaeqs/v3y2006i1_1.html

Guisan, M.C.(2007).”Industry, Foreign Trade and Development: Econometric Models of Africa, Asia and Latin America, 1965-2003” International Journal of Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol.4-1. Article free on line: click on the Abstrac page and then on "Download"" at the Web site of Journal IJAEQS.http://ideas.repec.org/s/eaa/ijaeqs.html

GUISAN, M.C. and AGUAYO, E. (2007). "Production by Sector in The European Union: Analysis of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland nnd The United Kingdom, 2000-2005". Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Volume 7-1. On line at: http://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/eerese/v7y2007i7_3.html

Other interesting articles at our journals AEID and RSES

16. Euro-American Association of Economic Development: Comments on poverty, world development and the book by P. Collier "The poverty bottom billion"

2011-02-21T10:40:00.008+01:00

Table of Poverty in the World: Source Guisan and Exposito (2010) elaborated from World Bank Indicators. Pubished in journal EEDI/ESID (english version will be announced here).

Interesting book by Paul Collier(2007): "The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It"
More information at: Look inside the book at Amazon
The autor: Paul Collier is a distinguish researchers in economic development. Professor of Economics, Oxford University Economics Department and Director of Centre for the Study of African Economies. More information at Oxford University

Links to other comments on the book:
How the bottom billion are trapped? By Martin Wolf, Financial Times, May 13 2007.

Terry OBrien "The Bottom Billion: Why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it: Some insights for the Pacific?" Australian document.

Our comments on the poverty billion and what can be done:
Accordingly to World Bank data and our estimations, extreme poverty (less than 2 dollars a day per person) has evolved from 46.81% of World popublation in year 2000 to 41.70% in year 2005. It is a huge percentage of people, and surely more effective policies should help to alliviate this problem. We share the aim to help the poor to have opportunities for a better life, and accordingly to the experience of selected international development studies we insist on the convenience to improve education and labor opportunities in those countries.

In Collier’s view some countries have fallen into one or often more of four traps, and resolving their problems will require novel ways of addressing those traps.
Trap 1: Conflict.
Trap 2: Mismanaged dependency on natural resources
Trap 3: Weak quality of governance in small countries
Trap 4. Difficulties for access to large markets (for example lanlocked countries without friendly

neighbours)

Other problems are often present in the poorest countries, such as earthquakes, unhealthy climate, river floods and other ones.

Accordingly to international econometric models and other studies, improvement of the educational level of population is a great advantage to solve many of these problems, having into account that usually education has a positive role to foster peace and cooperation, to improve quality of government, to prevent nature disasters, and to get a better management of natural resources and industrialization.

Some interesting articles in this regard are, among others, the following ones published by our Association in the journal Applied Econometrics and International Development, free available by clicking on "download" at the Abstract page:

Guisan and Aguayo (2010): "Education, Gender Equality, Social Well-Being and Economic Development in American Countries, 2000-2010"

Guisan and Exposito(2007): "Education, Development And Health Expenditure In Africa: Estimation of Cross-Section Model of 39 Countries In 2000-2005"

Guisan, Aguayo and Exposito(2001). "Education and World Development in 1900-1999: A General View and Challenges for the Near Future"

15. Employment in Social Services in OECD countries: Europe, United States and Japan. Euro-American Association Report 2010.

2010-11-14T20:06:00.003+01:00

Countries: Mexico, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, UK, USA, Japan, Finland and Switzerland

This graph shows the number of employed persons per 1000 inhabitants in services related with Education, Health, Public Administration and Other Social and Personal Services, in 10 OECD countries in year 2005:

We may notice that in a first stage, with the lowest values, are Mexico, Spain and Italy. A second stage correspond to France and Germany, while a third stage correspond to the United Kingdom, the United States, Finland and Switzerland which are in a higher level. Finally Japan shows the top position of this group of 10 OECD countries.
The number of employed persons varies from less than 100 per thousand people in Mexico to more than 200 in Japan, with an intremediate position around 150 in the UK, the USA, Finland and Switzerland.
It is important to notice that a high number of people in social services, and the quality of their work, is of uppermost importance for social wellbeing and development.

14. European Universities: Reactions to abuses and misuses of bibliometrics and bureaucracy in evaluation of researchers

2010-06-20T23:06:00.011+02:00

Source: Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies. Report 2010.

Some important challenges of European Union are to foster reasearch on development in its space and also improve international cooperation for research and development

Our main conclusion in this regard is that the European Union should improve channels of communication with researchers interested in these questions, instead of stress them with an overwhelming and unnecessary bureaucratic rules.

This graph presents a comparison of expenditure in Research and Development in several European Countries (Germany: De, France: Fr, Finland: Fi and Spain: Es) in comparison with the United States: USA, and Japan: Jp. France values represent the average of former UE15 countries, with the United Kingdom very alike and Italy below although higher than Spain.

In many European countries, university researchers not only receive less financial support for research but also, in several countries, experience more difficulties than in the USA in research evaluations due to abuses and misuses of bibliometric criteria for evaluaton. Bibliometrics may be used, among other criteria, for international comparisons of countries and even in some degree, of course together with other suplementary criteria, at university level. As stated by Anthony Van Kaan, Director of the Centre for Science and Technology Studies at Leiden University (Netherlands): "If there is one thing that every bibliometrician agrees, it is that you should never use the journal impact factor to evaluate research performance for an article or for an individual - that is a mortal sin".

See Nature nº 465 of June 2010 at:

http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100616/full/465864a.html

Unfortunately in some countries bureaucrats of Evalution Committes are not so wise as Anthony Van Kaan expects, and there are abuses and misuses of bibliometrics.

We will include here some important reactions that have arisen in Europe against the abuses and misuses of bibliometric rigidity in evaluations. To avoid those unfair abuses and misuses is goods news not only for European researchers but also for other countries where university researhcers are also suffering this kind of abuses. There are also other beneficial effects of avoiding unfair practices in European bureaucracies: a good policy of support to researchers in Economics, Social Sciences and other areas will have a clear positive effect on European cooperation to developing countries.

Problems and perspectives of support to researchers in Europe:

Problem 1) Only a few European countries provide enough financial support without unnecesary bureaucratic barriers to researchers. It is important to foster activities of tearchers unions and associations in countries with very low level of support to researchers, like Spain, in order to achieve higher levels of support from Government and public institutions. Improvements requiere not only to increase financial support but also diminish bureaucratic barriers with obscure and unfair rules which are time-consuming and do not help to many good researchers. A net of European researchers associations good be a positive support in this regard, accordingly to the positive experience of the National Tearchers Association and other organizations in the United States.

Problem 2) The Commission of the European Union has been until now (June of 2010) too much bureacratic and less effective to foster EU research. EU Commision suffers in many regards "euro-sclerosis" a kind of bureaucratic illness, which is a barrier that does not help to foster university research in many fields. Although in technology and some experimental sciences there are some fortunate teams which have reached support form EU a serious criticism is that EU rarely supports European communication in socio-economics and other ares of great importance not only for European development but also to improve international cooperation with developing countries. Universities and academic Associations do not receive almost any support for multilingual publications in the most spoken languages of Europe. It is a great news to know that some universities have signed in year 2009 an agreement to foster an European University Press addressed to increase readership in several countries of some of the main publications of European universities. It should be interesting to see if the EU authorities support this and other interesting initiatives from private or public organizations in this regard.

Reactions against this illness: As seen in ForoUnives2010 (entry in English) more than 13000 European researchers have signed the Manifesto "Trust in Researchers" in order to request a diminution of the overwhelming amount of bureaucratic and time-consuming barriers to European funding that researchers find every year. For the moment we have got a positive promise from European Union Commission. Now we are waiting for real changes in this regards.

Many researchers think that it is good news the promise of alleviate this bureaucratic barriers by EU Commissiariat of Science as seen in Nature of 15th June of 2010:

"Mr Smit goes to Brussels. Enthusiastic welcome for new European research chief".

For the moment it seems good news for natural and experimental sciences. We will be glad to report in the future if new EU policies also increase support to Social Sciencies and Humanities.

Problem 3) Abuse and misuse of bibliometrics for research evaluation in several EU countries. We report here the situation in several countries against the unfair bureaucratic movement addressed to impose bibliometrics as a mechanic system of research evaluation

Spain: Thousands of researchers have signed a Manifesto in Spain against the unfair procedures of the Ministry of Education during the period 1989-2010, and particularly since 1994, when they imposed bibliometric misuse on Economics and Other Social Sciences, and other unfair procedures on the individual evaluation of researchers in the "six-years evaluation" of activity known as "Sexenios". The problem is not yet solved by the Ministry of Education, in spite of support to several pleas of the Manifesto by the Senate of Spain, Commission of University Rectors and other institutions, Associations, Trade Unions and other social forces for the period 1994-2010.

Updated 14th November 2010: A good news is that a Committee of Univesity Rectors related with Economics and Business studies (CR8) has reached an agreement by unanimity with the Committe of Deans of Spanishs Faculties of Economics and Business to present to the Ministry of Education, Angel Gabilondo, a proposal of new criteria for evaluation of researchers more realistic and which is expected to give more support to good researchers. We are waiting for new more fair rules from the Ministry. We expect to inform here if in the future we get good news in this regard. More information in Spanish at ForoUnives 2010.

UK: It is remarkable the positive reaction of the Parliament of Great Britain in order to avoid bibliometric abuses in the Research Assessment Exercices as seen in the Tenth Report of year 2004 by the Select Committe on Science and Tecnololgy. Regarding the right criticisms against bibliometrics abuses in the Social Sciences it is interesting to mention the positive impact of articles by Claire Donovan, as those published in academic journals and in the Times Higher Education (THE).

Germany:

France

Other European countries:

This entry will be soon updated.

Links to other Website with interesting information on abuse and misuse of bibliometrics:

August 12, 2008. "The Use And Misuse Of Bibliometric Indices In Evaluating Scholarly Performance" http://zzzoot.blogspot.com/2008/08/use-and-misuse-of-bibliometric-indices.html

13. Comments on Krugman´s views of Spanish economy: Salaries are not to blame and should not diminish. Productivity should increase.

2010-03-02T10:40:00.007+01:00

Source: Elaboration by Guisan(2009), from OECD National Accounts, in EEDI Report Vol. 9-2.

This graph shows the evolution of labor costs in Spain, and show hat they are not the cause of the Spanish economic mess. The ratio labor cost/average productivity of labor has increased in Spain in the last years, but not as a consequence of increases in labor cost but due to the diminution of productivity.

The mess of Spanish economy is highly related with the diminution of productivity, and thus the analysis of causes and solutions to this mess should be related with increase of productivity and not with diminution of wages.

We do not agree with the Krugman´s recommendation of diminution of wages in Spain, but we agree with him that the Spanish economy is in a mess. In spite of that Spain economy may have a good evolution in the next years if the country gets a good economic policy.

Some links to Krugman articles and comments by readers are the following ones:

New York Times 10-02-09

New York Times 10-02-06

New York Times 09-01-19

An interesting analysis of the higher levels of productiviy and rates of employment in the United States, in comparison with European Union, is presented in the article by Guisan and Cancelo(2006) in the journal AEID, which is free downloadable. The conclusion, in section 5 of the article, are the following ones:

"5. European labour policies: suggestions and conclusionsThe lower rates of employment and wages in EU in comparison with the USA are due to lower levels of industrial and non-industrial real value-added per inhabitant. Wages are not to be blamed as the cause of unemployment in EU countries, but the lack of policies to foster industrial development, research, education and other variables which explain the higher levels of the USA in comparison in Europe. It is clear that economic policies in the USA are more focused to the increase of real Gdp per inhabitant and employment. The successful development of those policies in Europe should imply more dialogue between policy makers and the European society, including economics researchers. Unfortunately thee Euro-sclerosis in the bureaucracies of some EU institutions have led to increase the distance between political parties and society during the period 1985-2005. More industrial and regional development, less taxes on labour, and more support to education and scientific research in all the EU countries are convenient to diminish unemployment and stagnation and to reach real convergence with the USA regarding the increase of real wages and rates of employment at the same time."

These recommendations are of particular interest for Spain because industrial development and investment per capita is lower than in more adavanced European countries. It should be desirable more opportunities for economics researchers, who have something to say related with these questions, to present their opinions in the newspapers and other communication media.

Main page of the Blog: http://euroamericanassociation.blogspot.com

12. Euro-American Association on Education and Government Quality: Clerc´s story of a frog against social manipulation

2009-12-24T14:32:00.010+01:00

Readers may see the video in English in this entry or by clicking here. To see an interview in English to the author of the "story of a frog", the philosopher from Switzeralnd, Olivier Clerc, click here. There are other versions in French, Spanish and Italian.

In entry 13 of our Spanish Blog there is also a link to a nice and interesting video on "Education in Finland", explaining how the educational level of population usually contributes to increase the quality of government, selection of advisors and voice of citizens In the right column of that blog there are links to several videos related with economic development and quality of life.

The Video of the "Story of a Frog" tell us about the importance of Citizens Voice in Government Quality. Education usually contributes to foster Citizens Voice and Government Effectiveness. Econometrics research also shows those positive effects. Educated population has an important role to avoid manipulation of public opinion and to foster good quality of life for all.
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11. Report September of 2009: YPLL and Health expenditure in the United States, Europe and other OECD countries. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

2009-09-20T19:17:00.012+02:00

We hope that controversies around Health assistance organization in the USA will achieve enough social agreement in order to allow all the populaltion to benefit from a good and affordable health assistance at least in the same degree that it happens in the major countries of Western Europe and other industrialized countries. It does not mean necessarity that public systems will substitute private health assistance, because each country may decide a mix of both public and private systems to operate in order to offer a good system to all the population.

In the interesting survey: "Education, Health and Economic Development: A Survey of Quantitative Economic Studies, 2001-2009, by Guisan, M.C. (2009)", published in our journal RSES Vol. 9-2, we analyze the relationship between "health expenditure per capita" and Years of Potential Life Lost. The article is free downloadable (clicking on the title to go to the Abstract page, and then on "download" within that page).

Graph 3. YPLLF (or PYLLF): Years of potential life lost per 100 thousand female population and Health expenditure per capita in OECD countries year 2005

Source: Elaborated by Guisan(2009) from OECD, WHO and WDI atistics. Health Expenditure per capita is expressed in dollars at 2005 prices and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs).

Graph 4. YPLLM (o PYLLM): Years of potential life lost per 100 thousand male population and Health expenditure per capita in OECD countries, year 2005

Source: Elaborated by Guisan(2009) from OECD, WHO and WDI statistics Health expenditure per capita in Dollars at 2005 prices and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs).

Potential Years of Life Lost, PYLL (also know as YPLL: Years of Potential Life Lost) is measured by the number of years of life lost by people who died below 70 years old, per each 100 thousand inhabitants), PYLLF refers to female population and PYLLM to male population. This variable usually diminish when health expenditure per capita increases, although other factors are also important to lower the level of this prematural deaths, such as those related with the facilities to use health assistance services, if necessary, by all the population in all the geographical and social areas of the country, and other ones related with other risks that experience population such as risky jobs, health habits of life, and other ones.

We notice that several factors, such as risky jobs and activities among other ones, play an important role to explain the big differences between PYLLM and PYLLF, as in all the analysed countries PYLLM was substantially higher than PYLLF. It is striking to notice that the United States has the highest value of health expenditure per head but much higher values of PYLLF and PYLLM than those which should correspond to the degree of expenditure and quality of health assistance. Accordingly to recent reports on health assitance improvements it is clearly desirable that the USA may reach lower values of PYLLM and PYLLF in the next years.

Education has generally a highly positive impact on real production per capita, and real production usually help to increase the level of health expenditure per head. The increase of health expenditure per capita usually leads, with proper organization, to clear increases in health welfare and to clear diminutions of potential years of life lost. It is good news the current reforms aimed to increase coverage of health insurance to many millions of Northamerican citizens who did not enjoy this important service until now.

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10. Report August of 2009: On Spain, the United States, Trade Deficits and top Current Account Balances. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

2009-08-19T10:59:00.033+02:00

Graph 2: Current Account Balance per capita in top 18 countries with highest balance deficits

Source: Euro-American Asoc of Eco. Dev. Studies, elaborated from international sources. Development Report August 2009.

The order of the countries in graph 2 is the same of graph 1 (see list below).

Graph 1: Top Current Account Balances of the World (Bn dollars: thousand millions in 2008): 18 countries with highest superavit and 18 countries with highest deficits.

Source: Euro-American Asoc of Eco. Dev. Studies from international sources. Devalopment Report August 2009 http://euroamericanassociation.blogspot.com/Source: Euro-American Asoc of Eco. Dev. Studies from international sources. Devalopment Report August 2009 http://euroamericanassociation.blogspot.com/
Comments to Graph 2. The higher deficits per inhabitant (Current Account Balance per capita below -3000 dollars per inhabitant) corresponds to country number 2 (Spain) and number 9 (Greece). The degree of deficit per head is lower than 2000 dollars in a great majority (14 out of 18 top total deficit countries), including the case of the United States. It is much higher in the cases of Spain and Greece, with more than 3000 dollars of deficit per capita, what is a problem, having into account that those countries have a low degree of industrial development and they should foster industry for sustaineable development of other production sectors. Countries by total deficit in graph 2 appear in the same order than the countrydeficit countries of graph 1.

Comments to Graph 1: The 18 highest Current Account Balance Deficits of the World in year 2008 (negative values in red in Graph 1), correspond to: 1. the United States, 2. Spain, 3. the United Kingdom , 4. Italy , 5. France, 6.Turkey, 7. Australia, 8. India, 9. Greece, 10. Poland, 11. Romania, 12. Brazil, 13. Portugal, 14. South Africa, 15. Ukraine, 16. Mexico, 17. Vietnam and 18. Bulgaria, while the 18 highest Current Account Balance superavits (positive values in blue in Graph 1) in the same year correspond to: 1. China, 2. Germany, 3. Japan, 4. Saudi Arabia, 5. Russia, 6. Norway, 7. Kuwait, 8. Venezuela, 9. the Netherlands, 10. Libya, 11. Switzerland, 12. United Arab Emirates, 13. Algeria, 14. Sweden, 15. Singapore, 16. Iran, 17. Malaysia and 18. Taiwan.

Causes and consequences of deficits and superavits:

Superavit in some cases correspond to oil exports and in other cases to countries interested in diminishing their international debt or interested in investment abroad in order to increase economic returs and development. Superavits are usually good for a country if the returns from this superavits, usually invested abroad, have direct and/or indirect positive effects on domestic economic development as it usually happens.

Balance deficits respond to different types of situations and have different effects on economic development:

1) Countries highly industrialized, which are attractive and open to foreing investment in domestic markets in order to foster Imports capacity and production in some economic sectors. Correspond to this group the United States, the United Kingdom and France. The effect is usually positive. In this cases foreign resources are supplementary of domestic resources and usually positive.

2) Countries of middle level of industrialization, which do not foster enough industrial growth and develop economic policies addressed to increase international debt in order to finance Imports and foster building and services activities. In these cases, such as Spain in the period 2004-2008, and at a less extent before 2004, foreign resources are used ad substitutes of domestic industrialization and have short run positive effects but this police may lead to long run negative effects it is not accompanied by increase in industrialization and good conditions of international debt (low cost, sustainability, stability and other ones).

3) Countries of low level of industrialization: Usually a Current Account Deficit is positive and necessary to foster economic development, based on international cooperation and investment.

The role of Exports, Imports and Current Account Balance:
International Econometric models show that foreign trade is usually positively associated with economic development, partly because Exports foster economic development from the demand side (more purcharsers of the goods and services produced by the country) and partly because Exports increase the capacity to increase Imports of raw materials and other goods which have a highly positive effect from the supply side, allowing the country to expand domestic production, usually both in industrial and non industiral sectors. Although the role of the demand has been widely studied and recognized, the important role of supply has unfortunately received less attention in economic studies and policies. Interesting articles in this regard, free downloadble, are included in our journal IJAEQS Vol. 3-1 for the cases of Europe and North America, and in Vol. 4-1 for Asia, Africa and Latin America (to access click on the selected article and then click on "Download" at the Abstract page).

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9. Latin America 2000-2007: The Role of Investment, Industry and Foreign Trade in economic development. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

2009-08-18T21:42:00.021+02:00

Economic development in Latin America has experienced a positive evolution in the period 2000-2007, althought it could have been higher in case of more industrialization. The low levels of industrial real Value-Added per capita in comparison with OECD countries explains, at a great degree, the lower levels of real income per capita in Latin American countries.

The following graph shows the relationships between increase of real GDP per capita in the period 2000-2007 and the level of industrial development at the beginning of that period. Of course the increase in industrialización during the period has also a positive impact on the development of services and other sectors, and thus on real GDP per capita.

Increase of real GDP per capita and industrialización in Latin America

Source: Elaboration by the Euro-American Association from World Bank indicators

The important role of industry, together with human capital, social capital, foreign trade and other factors is well explained in the figures presented in the article by Guisan(2009), free on line at Volume 9-1 of the journal AEID
Other articles published by our Association of interest for economic development in Latin America are listed
in our Blog of International Economics in Spanish. We will include here a list of those published in English.

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8. China, India and other other Asian Countries: Articles by Nobel Prize L.R. Klein and other authors, published by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2001-2005

2009-07-25T10:10:00.016+02:00

Professor Lawrence R.Klein. Univestiy of Pennsylvania (USA).

Laureate Nobel Prize of Economics 1980 and Honrary Member of our Association

Articles published in our journal AEID (Applied Econometrics and International Development) for the period 2001-2005, are now free downloadable at our jounal Website

We highlight the interesting article by Nobel Prize Lawrence R. Klein:

KLEIN, L.R. (2004). "China and India: Two Asian Economic Giants, Two Different Systems" AEID Vol. 4-1.

List of articles on China, India and other Asian countries published in AEID, 2001-2005 and free downloadable at http://www.usc.es/economet/aeid.htm are:

Year 2005.
* Foodgrain Price Policies in India: The Effects on Foodgrain Production and Rural Poverty 1951-2001
Vol. 5, No. 3, 2005, Edgar J. Wilson
* Intra-Industry Trade in Manufactures between Thailand and Other Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Countries, Vol. 5, No. 4, 2005 Sujinda Chemsripong , Julie Lee and Frank W. Agbola
*The Sources and Dynamics of Inflation in Indonesia: An Ecm Model Estimation for 1952-2002, Vol. 5, No. 4, 2005 Akhand Akhtar Hossain
* Trade Reforms and Economic Integration in South Asia: SAARC to SAPTA, Vol. 5, No. 4, 2005 Mamta B. Chowdhury
*What's Happening to Per Capita GDP in the ASEAN Countries?. An Analysis of Convergence, 1960-2001, Vol. 5, No. 3, 2005 Khorshed Chowdhury
*Financing Rural Infrastructure in Developing Countries: The Case of India, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2005 Indira Rajaraman
Year 2004
*Does the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Hold for Asian Countries? An Empirical Analysis Using Panel Data and Cointegration Tests, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2004, Imed Drine and Christophe Rault
*Human Capital, Trade and Development in India, China, Japan and Other Asian Countries, 1960-2002: Econometric Models and Causality Tests, Vol. 4, No. 3, 2004 Maria-Carmen Guisan
Indian Economy in the Next Five Years: Key Issues and Challenges, 2005-2009, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2004 Krishna Chaitanya V.
* Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries, 1978-1997, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2004 Laszlo Matyas , Laszlo Konya and Mark N. Harris
* Budget Deficits and Other Macroeconomic Variables in India, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2004 Srivyal Vuyyuri and S. Venkata Seshaiah
* China and India: Two Asian Economic Giants, Two Different Systems, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2004 Lawrence R. Klein
* Dynamics of Exchange Rate Fluctuations between Yen and the Us-Dollar, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2004 T. Obara
* Linkages of Indian Interest Rates with US and Japanese Rates, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2004 Srivyal Vuyyuri
Year 2003
* Application of Langevin Equation in Econometrics to the Interaction between the Exchange Rates of Japan and South Korea, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2003 T. Obara
* Competitiveness, Productivity and Export Performance of Indian Private Firms, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2003 Lakshmi K. Raut
* Education, Industry, Trade and Development in Asia-Pacific Countries in 1980-99, Vol. 3, No. 2, 2003 Maria-Carmen Guisan and Pilar Exposito
Year 2002
* The Impact of Foreign Banks on Market Concentration: The Case of India, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2002, Milind Sathye
Year 2001
* Economic Development of African and Asia-Pacific Areas in 1951-99, Vol. 1, No. 2, 2001, Maria-Carmen Guisan , Pilar Exposito

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7. World Development Reports free on line 2001-2005. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies

2009-07-02T10:38:00.012+02:00

World Development Reports published by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies for the years 2001-2005, are here free downloadable. . These articles point to the important role of Education, Industry and Trade in improving socio-economic development.

To access each article, please click on "Abstract" and then on "Download" within the Abstract pag, or go to AEID Website: http://www.usc.es/economet/aeid.htm

Education and World Development in 1900-1999: A General View and Challenges for the Near Future, Guisan, M.C., Aguayo, E. and Exposito, P. Abstract

Economic Development of American and European Areas in 1951-99, Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. Abstract

Economic Development of African and Asia-Pacific Areas in 1951-9, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, E. Abstract

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of American Countries in 1980-99 Abstract y article

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of African Countries in 1980-99Abstract y article

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of European and Eurasian Countries in 1980-99. Abstract

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of Asia-Pacific countries in 1980-99. Abstract

Human Capital and Economic Development in Africa, 1950-2002,. Abstract

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6. Cooperation with ICFAI Books of India and other news for readers. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2009.

2009-04-18T09:39:00.023+02:00

Our Association is glad to cooperate with the interesting publications of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts, ICFAI, of Hyderabad (India) with several chapters in books and, particularly, with this full book, edited by the President of our Association, Professor Maria-Carmen Guisan, on the role of Demand and Supply on Macro-Econometrics Models. The book includes interesting contributions for development policies, by outstanding authors who have previously published related articles in our journal AEID, in the following chapters:

1. Maria-Carmen GUISAN (Spain): The Role of Demand and Supply in Economic Development

2. Abbas VALADKHANI (Australia): Macroeconometric Modelling Approches and Experiences in Developing Countries.

3. Maria-Carmen GUISAN (Spain): Human Capital, Trade and Development in India, China, Japan and other Asian Countries, 1960-2002. Econometric Models and Causality Effects.

4. S. Venkata SESHAIAH and Srivya VUYYURI (India): Savings and Investment in India. A Cointegration Approach.

5. Maria-Carmen GUISAN and Pilar EXPOSITO (Spain): Human Capital and Development in Africa. Econometric Models and Evolution, 1950-2002.

6. Giorgios KARRAS (USA): Trade Opennes and Economic Growth Revisited. An Updated Estimate of the Long-Run Effect.

7. Felicitas NOWAK-LEHMANN D (Germany): Trade Policy and its Impact on Economic Growth: The Chilean Experience in the Period 1960-1998.
8. RAJAGOPAL (Mexico): Institutional Reforms and Trade-Competitiveness in Latin America.
9. Maria-Carmen GUISAN and Maria-Teresa CANCELO (Spain): Econometric Models of Foreign Trade in OECD Countries.
10. Laszlo MATYAS, Laszlo KONYA and Mark N. HARRIS (Hungary and Australia): Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries, 1978-1997.
11. Juan PIÑEIRO, Haider A. KHAN, David N. MELIKIYAN and Artur TAMAZIAN (Spain and USA): Financial Market Efficiency, Institutions and Growth: An International Econometric Analysis for 1997-2002.

Other Messages for Readers. Updated on July of 2009:

Since May of 2009 all the articles of years 2001 to 2005 are free downloadable at the AEID Website as well as some articles published since year 2006. For journal RSES free downloads include articles of years 2001 to 2006 and a few articles published since year 2007. For journal EEDI/ESID articles of years 2001 to 2007 are freedownloadable as well as a few articles among those published since 2008. All the articles of journal IJAEQS are free downloadable as it is an Open Access journal.

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5. Education, Quality of Government and Development in Europe, Eurasia and North America. Euro.American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2009

2009-02-01T20:37:00.020+01:00

Foto: Daniel Kaufmann. The Brookings Instutions (USA)

. Governance Matters.

We announce the publication of an interesting article in Vol. 9-1 of journal AEID; where we analyse the significant positive effect of education and quality of Government on economic development, thanks to the interesting indicators of Government quality published by Kaufmann, Kray and Mastruzzi in "Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for 1996-2007".

Government Effectiveness, Education, Economic Development and Well-Being: Analysis of European Countries in Comparison with the United States and Canada, 2000-2007, Guisan, M.C. Abstract

For full access to the article, please click on "Abstract" and then in "downolad" at the abstract page.

The articles points to the important positive role of government effectiveness on economic development and the positive impact of education and voice of citizens on government effectiveness and development.

Other studies: The important positive role of education on economic development is also analysed, together with other factors, in several interesting articles published in journal AEID, many free dowloadable at: http://www.usc.es/economet/aeid.htm

An Econometric Model of Industry, Trade and Economic Development of Philippines, 1990-2006, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, P.

What Does the Human Development Index Tell Us about Convergence?, Konya, L. and Guisan, M.C. Abstract

On Wage Formation, Wage Development and Flexibility: A Comparison Between European Countries and The United States, Peeters. H.M.M. and Den Reijer, A.H.J. Abstract

Socio-economic Determinants of Development in World Economy, 1820-2005 Bildirici and Sunal Abstract

Education, Development and Health Expenditure in Africa: A cross-section model of 39 countries in 2000-2005, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito

Economic Determinants of Development in World Economy, 1920-2005. An Analysis of 165 Countries. Bildirici, M. and Sunal, S.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: A New Empirical Evidence from the Mena Countries, 1989-2001, Al-Zubi, K., Al-Rjoub,S. Abu-Mhareb,E Abstract

Direct and Indirect Effects of Human Capital on World Development, 1960-2004, by Guisan, M.C. and Neira, I. Abstract

Influence of Research and Development Expenditures on Number of Patent Applications: Selected Case Studies in OECD countries and Central Europe, 1981-2001, Prodan, I. Abstract

World Development Report: Industry and Economic Development in Latin America, 1980-2002, Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. Abstract

Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Development Countries, Valadkhani, A. Abstract

World Development Report: Human Capital and Economic Development in Africa: An Econometric Analysis for 1950-2002, by Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, P.

World Development Report: Human Capital, Trade and Development in India, China, Japan and other Asian Countries, 1960-2002: Econometric Models and Causality Tests, by Guisan, M.C.

Comparative Studies of European Countries: Employment, Population and Regional Development in Western and Central Europe. Econometric Models and Challenges of EU Enlargement, by Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. Abstract (pp. 129-142)

World Development Reports: Education, Industry, Trade and Development of Asia-Pacific countries in 1980-99, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, Po.

World Development Reports: Education, Industry, Trade and Development of European and Eurasian Countries in 1980-99. Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E.

Education, Industry, Trade and Development of African Countries in 1980-99, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, P.

Employment and Regional Development in Italy by Guisan, M. C. and Aguayo, E.
Education, Industry, Trade and Development of American Countries in 1980-99, Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E.
Econometric model of Services Sector Development and Impact of Tourism in Latin American Countries by Aguayo, E.; Exposito, P. and Lamelas, N.

Employment and Regional Development in Germany by Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E.

Economic Development of African and Asia-Pacific Areas in 1951-99, Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, P.

Employment and Regional Development in France by Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. Abstract y article

Education and World Development in 1900-1999: A General View and Challenges for the Near Future, Guisan, M.C., Aguayo, E. and Exposito, P.

Economic Development of American and European Areas in 1951-99. Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E.

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4. News 2008: On line access to journal AEID in SSRN. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies.

2008-11-21T09:24:00.020+01:00

News November 2008: Articles published by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies in the journal Applied Econometrics and International Development (AEID) are now availabe, at low cost, through Social Science Research Network (SSRN). Articles include data and interesting analyses of Europe, Eurasia, North America, Latin American and Caribbean countries, Northern Africa and Middle East, Subsaharan Africa and Asia-Pacific. Index and access to the articles: http://www.usc.es/economet/index2aeid.htm
Updated 14th November 2010: Articles of our journal AEID at SSRN are free since October of 2010.Free on line: Our journal l IJAEQS is a DOAJ open access journal with articles free downloadable at the journal Website. Some articles published in the other journals of our Association are also free downloable from the journals Website: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm
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3. Africa: Education, Health Expenditure and international cooperation to development. Euro-American Association Report

2008-07-16T11:08:00.014+02:00

International cooperation to development needs more policies addressed to improve education in the low income countries of Africa, because education has very important positive effects on the increase of real income per head and on the increase of health expenditure per inhabitant. The MDGs (Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations) unfortunately did not imply, for the moment, enough support to foster education, although some positive measures have been implemented.

More information at the following interesting report, clicking here and at "download" in the abstract page:
Health Expenditure, Poverty and Economic Development in Africa, 2000-2005
http://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/ijaeqs/v3y2006i2_1.html

This interesting article has got only 100 readers since the end of 2007 until the end of 2009, in spite that it is free on line, available at our Open Access journal IJAEQS. It is REALLY SAD to notice that very few people reads this kind of interesting solutions for Africa.!!!
The main conclusions of this study point to the priority of international cooperation for education in Africa in order to improve real income per capita, erradicate poverty and increase health expenditure per inhabitant and welfare.

Other interesting articles, in English, on economic development of Africa published in our journals RSES, IJAEQS and AEID, free downloadable, by clicking on the title and then in "download" at the Abstract page, are among othersthe following ones:

Year 2008. "Manufacturing and Economic Development: Inter-sectoral relationships in Europe, America, Africa and Asia-Pacific, 1999-2006," RSES 8-2.

Year 2007. "Education, Development And Health Expenditure In Africa: Estimation Of Cross-Section Model Of 39 Countries In 2000-2005," AEID 7-2

Year 2007. "Industry, Foreign Trade and Development: Econometric Models of Africa, Asia and Latin America 1965-2003," IJAEQS 4-1.

Year 2007. "Production by sector in Africa, 2000-2005," RSES 7-2

Year 2006. "Health Expenditure, Poverty and Economic Development in Africa, 2000-2005," IJAEQS 3-2

Year 2005. "Human Capital and Economic Development in Africa: An Econometric Analysis for 1950-2002," AEID 5-1

Year 2002. "Education, Industry, Trade and Development of African Countries in 1980-99," AEID 2-2

Year 2001. "Economic Development of African and Asia-Pacific Areas in 1951-99," AEID 1-2

An interesting article on Africa published in the journal REC (Review on Economic Cycles):
Year 2002. "Economic Growth and Cycles in Asia and Africa in the 20th Century," Review on Economic Cycles, International Association of Economic Cycles, vol. 5(1)

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2. Regional development in Europe: Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies EAAEDS/AEEADE

2008-06-17T16:33:00.015+02:00

Regional Economics: Some interesting articles and documents on regional development in the European Union, America and other areas are free downloadable at the Regional web site

Journal RSES: Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies has been accepted for inclusion in the prestigious index SCOPUS of Elsevier since year 2008. The journal is also indexed in other prestigious international lists: Econ-Lit of the American Economic Association, RSAI of Regional Science Association International, Webec and selected Catalogue of Latindex, among other ones.

Some selected articles, in English, on the development of European Union regions, free downloadable at our journals RSES and AEID are the following ones:

Employment, Population and Regional Development in Western and Central Europe. Econometric Models and Challenges of EU Enlargement, by Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. (2004)

Education, Research and Manufacturing in EU25: An Inter-Sectoral Econometric Model of 151 European Regions, 1995-2000, by Guisan, M.C. (2004)

Decomposition of global and European socio-economic inequalities with attention to their regional dimensions, by Novotny, J. (2004)

Regional Systems of Innovation and Regional Policy in Europe, Korres, G. M. ; Chionis, D. P.and Staikouras, C. (2004)
Employment and Regional Tourism in Europe, 1990-2000, por Guisan, M.Carmen y Aguayo, Eva (2002)

The Innovation Factor: An Econometric Model of Productivity inEuropean Regions, Vieira, E., Vazquez-Rozas, E. And Neira, I. (2007)

Inter-regional Wage Dispersion in Portugal, Vieira, J.A.C., Couto, J.P.A., Tiago, M.T.B. (2006)

Regions and Low-Wage Mobility in Portugal, 1996-2000, (2004) by Vieira, J.A.C. and Madruga, P. (2004)

Employment and Regional Development in Italy by Guisan, M. C. and Aguayo, E. (2002)

Employment and Regional Development in France by Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. (2001)

Employment and Regional Development in Germany by Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E.(2001)

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1. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies 2008. World Development Reports of America, Europe and Eurasia, Africa and Asia

2008-06-13T18:33:00.027+02:00

Photo 1: Members of the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies with Nobel Prize in Economics Lawrence R. Klein, his wife Sonia Klein and international students of the Master of International Sectoral Economics (ISE) in Santiago de Compostela (Spain) in June of 2004.

Photo 2: Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Economics, Editor of the journals published by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, Director of Master ISE and Administratior of the Blog

Access to Klein´s autobiography at the Nobel site

Friendly Welcome Message from Maria-Carmen Guisan Administrator of the Blog:

"Welcome to the Blog of the Euro-American Association of Economid Development Studies (EAAEDS): The Association is committed to reach real impact of socio-economic research related with World development, particular when it is related with education, industrial development, quality of government, poverty eradication or alliviation, women equality of opportunities and quality of life. We are aware that research in Economic Development should not only be addressed to publication in reputed academic journals, read only by a few qualified experts or by advanced students, but also to reach a wider readership of readers interested in economic policies for development. We are also aware that communication media usually pay little attention to the main findings of economics research while many of these media pay too much attention to secondary or even futile questions, For that reasons we include in this Blog references to economic development priorities that arise from the research studies published in the journals of our Associations and other related studies. The entries of this Blogs are addressed to readers interested in peace and international cooperation to development ".

Website of Maria-Carmen Guisan, Professor of Econometrics and Administrator of the Blog of World Development of the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, with free on line access to more than 100 interesting articles on quantitative studies of international development in English, Spanish and other languages at Ideas.Repec: http://www.usc.es/economet/guisan.htm

Our Association also publishes free downloadable articles, on quantitative studies of economic development of OECD countries, Latin America, Africa, Asia and World Development in English in its journals AEID (many articles free downloadable and IJAEQS all free), RSES and EEDI (both in English or Spanish and free for years 2001 to 2006 and some also free since year 2007), and free working papers in English, Spanish and other languages at the home page of our Association
Home of the journals published by the EAAEDS: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm

The Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies publishes economics research related with the role of education, industry and other factors on economic development: A general overview of production by sector, population growth, educational level of population by major areas may be found at:
Economic Development of American and European Areas, 1951-1999
Economic Development of African and Asia-Pacific Areas, 1951-1999
More detailed analysis by country within each area, for the period 1980-1999 are free downloadble at:
Development of American Countries, 1980-1999
Development of European and Eurasian Countries, 1980-1999
Development of African Countries, 1980-1999
Development of Asia and Pacific Countries, 1980-1999

To access these articlesi firstly click on the title, and then on "download" at the abstract page of each article.
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